Odaily星球日报讯 据机构分析，澳大利亚债券交易员本周在国内外需要关注的事情很多。市场普遍预计美联储 FOMC 将在本周开始降息，真正存在争议的是降息幅度。如果美联储降息 50 个基点，可能会加剧对澳洲联储鹰派言论的攻击，突显出澳洲联储落后于越来越多正在降息的全球央行。 最近，澳洲联储因高利率“破坏经济”而受到批评。至于澳大利亚国内方面，该国 9 月份就业数据将于周四公布。经济学家预计就业岗位将稳步增加，失业率将降至 4.1%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 据机构分析，澳大利亚债券交易员本周在国内外需要关注的事情很多。市场普遍预计美联储 FOMC 将在本周开始降息，真正存在争议的是降息幅度。如果美联储降息 50 个基点，可能会加剧对澳洲联储鹰派言论的攻击，突显出澳洲联储落后于越来越多正在降息的全球央行。最近，澳洲联储因高利率“破坏经济”而受到批评。至于澳大利亚国内方面，该国 9 月份就业数据将于周四公布。经济学家预计就业岗位将稳步增加，失业率将降至 4.1%。（金十）

机构观点：若美联储大幅降息，澳洲联储鹰派立场将备受打击

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.

Odaily Odaily News According to institutional analysis, Australian bond traders have a lot to pay attention to this week at home and abroad. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may intensify attacks on the Reserve Bank of Australia&#39;s hawkish remarks, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia lags behind more and more global central banks that are cutting interest rates. Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for &quot;destroying the economy&quot; with high interest rates. As for Australia domestically, the country&#39;s September employment data will be released on Thursday. Economists expect jobs to increase steadily and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%. (Jinshi)

Institutional view: If the Fed cuts interest rates sharply, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be hit hard

The Odaily Planet Daily reported that the Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar and other currencies in early Asian trading. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) Global Economic and Markets Research team said in a research report that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will both hold monetary policy meetings this week, and if the market focuses on the convergence of their monetary policy, the US dollar could fall below the year-to-date low of 140.00 against the Japanese yen. The team said that while the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy unchanged this week, its Governor Kazuo Ueda may open the door for another rate hike, possibly as early as October. Meanwhile, the FOMC this week may cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. FactSet data showed the US dollar fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen to 140.52, after touching 140.29 on Friday, the lowest intraday level so far this year.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia: It is expected that the Governor of the Bank of Japan may open the door to another rate hike, which may be as early as October

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the US retail sales data, known as the "terrible data," will be released. UBS says they are closely monitoring retail sales and industrial production data, and weak data may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points instead of 25 basis points. UBS says that US inflation has already slowed to a level that allows for a rate cut. The institution outlined its "base case" that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 100 basis points for the rest of this year and another 100 basis points in 2025. UBS added that as the pace of rate cuts accelerates, the US dollar will further decline, and gold will rise further. (Jinshi)

UBS: US retail sales data may affect the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and it is expected that the interest rate will be cut by 100 basis points this year