Odaily星球日报讯 星展银行外汇策略师 Philip Wee 在一份研究报告中表示，如果美联储在本周的联邦公开市场委员会会议上降息 25 个基点，而不是期货市场所反映的降息 50 个基点，美元指数可能会出现条件反射式反弹。然而，他补充称，进入 2024 年末和 2025 年，美元指数可能进一步走弱，跌破 2022 年 12 月以来的 101-107 区间。（金十）

星展银行：美联储本周降息25BP或使美元出现条件反射式走高

Philip Wee, a foreign exchange strategist at DBS Odaily, said in a research note that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points at this week&#39;s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, rather than the 50 basis point cut reflected by the futures market, the US dollar index may rebound reflexively. However, he added that the US dollar index may weaken further into late 2024 and 2025, falling below the 101-107 range since December 2022. (Jinshi)

DBS Bank: The Fed's 25BP rate cut this week may cause the US dollar to rise reflexively

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%.

PANews reported on September 15 that, according to Jinshi, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve faced a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and then the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. There will be many key events next week:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. Taiwan time this Thursday (19th). As investors' expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen again, U.S. stocks rose across the board on September 13, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing in the green for five consecutive days, reversing the previous week's weak performance and recording the largest weekly gain so far this year.

The Federal Reserve's decision between a 25-basis-point or 50-basis-point cut is a 50-50 proposition.

This week, major central banks including the U.S., UK, and Japan will hold policy meetings, with the Federal Reserve's decision being the most closely watched by the market. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, Fed officials are debating whether to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at their meeting this week.

Super Central Bank Week is here! The market predicts that the price will drop by 1 or 2 yards in five or five waves. Can Bitcoin stabilize the US$60,000 mark?