Odaily星球日报讯 摩根士丹利的迈克•威尔逊（Mike Wilson）在一份报告中写道：“如果就业数据从现在开始走弱，无论美联储的首次降息是 25 个基点还是 50 个基点，市场都可能以避险基调进行交易。”威尔逊是 2024 年年中之前最著名的看空者之一。另一方面，他表示，如果就业状况好转，那么到 2025 年中期，美联储将连续降息 25 个基点，这可能进一步支撑美股估值。（金十）

摩根士丹利：无论美联储降息25或50基点，市场都可以避险基调进行交易

Odaily Odaily News: Morgan Stanley&#39;s Mike Wilson wrote in a report: &quot;If the employment data weakens from now on, the market is likely to trade in a risk-off tone regardless of whether the Fed&#39;s first rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points.&quot; Wilson is one of the most famous bears before mid-2024. On the other hand, he said that if the employment situation improves, then by mid-2025, the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which may further support US stock valuations. (Jinshi)

Morgan Stanley: Whether the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points, the market can trade in a risk-off tone

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

The market was relatively stable for most of last week, but by Friday, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September suddenly surged from around 15% to about 50%, and there was almost no clear news to explain this change. The economic data was largely in line with expectations and was not a factor, and the Federal Reserve was still in a silent period, which led market participants to speculate that this repricing may have been triggered by comments from former Federal Reserve officials and journalists...

SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240916): 50 is the New 25

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.