Odaily星球日报讯 交易员认为美联储 9 月份降息 50 个基点的可能性高于 25 个基点。（金十）

交易员认为美联储9月份降息50个基点的可能性高于25个基点

Odaily Odaily News: Traders believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September is higher than 25 basis points. (Jinshi)

Traders see a higher chance of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September than a 25 basis point cut

The market was relatively stable for most of last week, but by Friday, the market's expectation of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September suddenly surged from around 15% to about 50%, and there was almost no clear news to explain this change. The economic data was largely in line with expectations and was not a factor, and the Federal Reserve was still in a silent period, which led market participants to speculate that this repricing may have been triggered by comments from former Federal Reserve officials and journalists...

SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240916): 50 is the New 25

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.