Odaily星球日报讯 汇丰表示，如果美联储周三降息 25 个基点，并发出进一步逐步放松政策的信号，美元可能会上涨。汇丰银行外汇分析师保罗•麦克尔在一份报告中说，美联储是降息 25 个基点还是 50 个基点，现在还很难说。“汇丰经济预计，美联储将以降息 25 个基点开始，同时暗示未来将进一步放宽政策，但幅度不大。”麦克尔表示，这种情况将使美元"转向更好的基础"，特别是考虑到市场对降息的定价过高，以及有迹象显示美元空头仓位过多。（金十）

汇丰：若美联储周三降息25个基点并发出放松政策信号，美元可能上涨

Odaily Odaily News HSBC said that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signals further gradual easing of policy, the dollar may rise. Paul Michael, a foreign exchange analyst at HSBC, said in a report that it is difficult to say whether the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points. &quot;HSBC Economics expects the Fed to start with a 25 basis point rate cut while hinting at further easing in the future, but not by much.&quot; Michael said that this situation will put the dollar &quot;on a better footing&quot;, especially considering that the market has overpriced the rate cut and there are signs that there are too many short positions in the US dollar. (Jinshi)

HSBC: The dollar could rise if the Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and signals easing policy

According to the report from Gold Ten, after the release of the US CPI report earlier this week, the market almost believed that the Federal Reserve would make a slight rate cut of 25 basis points this month, but the situation reversed rapidly from Thursday. At that time, former New York Fed President Dudley said the Federal Reserve had reason to cut rates by 50 basis points next week, and the reporter from The Wall Street Journal, known as the "Federal Reserve News Agency", and the Financial Times also reported that the Federal Reserve was facing a difficult choice between cutting rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points, and subsequently the market's bet on the Federal Reserve making a significant rate cut next week rose significantly to a "fifty-fifty" chance. Next week there will be many key events:
Monday 20:30, US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index;
Tuesday 20:30, US August Retail Sales MoM;
Wednesday 14:00, UK August CPI MoM, UK August Retail Price Index MoM;
Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary;
Thursday 2:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 14, US September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index;
Friday 11:00, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision;
Friday 14:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will hold a monetary policy press conference.

Outlook for next week: The Federal Reserve leads the "Super Central Bank Week", Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%.

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.