Odaily星球日报讯 市场预期美联储明年 6 月前降息 200 个基点。贝莱德表示：“我们认为这有些过头了，随着市场在截然不同的潜在结果之间摇摆不定，这可能引发更剧烈的定价变化。”（金十）

贝莱德：市场对美联储明年6月前的降息预期过高

Odaily Odaily News: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 200 basis points by June next year. BlackRock said: &quot;We think this is a bit too much, and as the market swings between very different potential outcomes, this may trigger more drastic pricing changes.&quot; (Jinshi)

BlackRock: Market expectations for a Fed rate cut before June next year are too high

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 33.0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 67.0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 52.9%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 27.8%.

CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is higher than 25 basis points

Steve Englander, the head of global G10 foreign exchange research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank's New York branch, stated that the recent U.S. economic data does not provide compelling reasons for the upcoming FOMC meeting to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. A 50-basis point rate cut but a policy mistake could be worse than a 25-basis point rate cut but a policy mistake. The reason for a 25-basis point reduction is that the upcoming inflation data does not support the target of inflation quickly approaching 2%. At the same time, the recent rise in the unemployment rate also indicates a worrying deterioration in the economy.

Standard Chartered: The Fed has no compelling reason to initiate a large-scale rate cut

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.