Odaily星球日报讯 星展银行表示，市场预计美联储将进行一系列降息，但激进的市场定价可能失望而归，并最终引发恐慌。经济学家 Taimur Baig 在一份报告中写道：“低于 3%的通胀率和高于 5%的政策利率往往难以共存，因此有必要实施一些货币宽松政策。但市场反映的降息幅度似乎过大。要让收益率曲线反映出未来 16 个月降息幅度超过 200 个基点的情况，美国经济必须明显走弱，通胀必须降至 2%以下，而这种情况不太可能发生。”星展银行的基本观点是，到 2025 年底，美联储将降息 150 个基点，本周将降息 25 个基点。（金十 P）

星展银行：对美联储的激进降息定价可能失望而归并引发恐慌

Odaily Odaily DBS Bank said that the market expects the Federal Reserve to make a series of rate cuts, but aggressive market pricing may be disappointed and eventually cause panic. Economist Taimur Baig wrote in a report: &quot;Inflation rates below 3% and policy rates above 5% are often difficult to coexist, so some monetary easing is necessary. But the rate cuts reflected by the market seem to be too large. For the yield curve to reflect a rate cut of more than 200 basis points in the next 16 months, the US economy must weaken significantly and inflation must fall below 2%, which is unlikely to happen.&quot; DBS Bank&#39;s basic view is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 150 basis points by the end of 2025, and a 25 basis point cut this week. (Jin Shi P)

DBS Bank: Pricing in the Fed’s aggressive rate cuts could lead to disappointment and panic

According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 33.0%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 67.0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 19.3%, the probability of a 75 basis point cut is 52.9%, and the probability of a 100 basis point cut is 27.8%.

CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points this week is higher than 25 basis points

According to the "Federal Reserve Observer" of CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 52%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively cutting interest rates by 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and the probability of cumulatively cutting interest rates by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%.

According to the analysis of the institution, Australian bond traders have many things to focus on domestically and internationally this week. The market generally expects the US Federal Reserve FOMC to start cutting interest rates this week, and the real controversy is the extent of the rate cut. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it may exacerbate the attack on the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of Australia, highlighting that the Reserve Bank of Australia is lagging behind the increasingly global central banks that are cutting interest rates.

Recently, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been criticized for "damaging the economy" due to high interest rates. As for the domestic situation in Australia, the country's employment data for September will be released on Thursday. Economists expect that the number of jobs will increase steadily, and the unemployment rate will drop to 4.1%.