Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通 CEO 戴蒙表示，美联储会降息，但不会是以惊天动地的形式。（金十）

摩根大通CEO：美联储会降息，但不会“惊天动地”

Odaily Odaily News: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said the Fed will cut interest rates, but not in a earth-shattering way. (Jinshi)

JPMorgan Chase CEO: Fed will cut rates, but it won't be "earth-shattering"

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently stated that he does not rule out the possibility of stagflation, even though confidence in the easing of inflation is growing. Dimon warned at the Institutional Investor Committee's fall conference in Brooklyn, New York, that while there are signs of economic cooling, serious risks still exist. He said: "I think the worst outcome is stagflation - a recession, higher inflation... I won't rule that out." Dimon expressed concern about the potential for persistent inflationary pressures, citing factors such as increased government spending and rising deficits. He pointed out that while inflation data is improving, indicators such as employment and manufacturing are showing economic strain. He warned: "These are all inflations, basically in the short term, over the next few years (persistent)." He emphasized that despite some positive economic signals, there is still significant uncertainty, and inflationary pressures could weigh on the US economy. Dimon has been warning about an economic slowdown, stating in August that the chances of a "soft landing" are only 35% to 40%, indicating that a recession is more likely. He cited various uncertainties, including geopolitics, housing, and spending. At the same time, JPMorgan has increased the likelihood of a US economic recession this year.

JPMorgan Chase CEO warns of risks of U.S. recession, rising inflation, and stagflation

According to Odaily, many Wall Street analysts still expect the Federal Reserve's first step in cutting interest rates to be more cautious. "I hope they will cut rates by 50 basis points, but I suspect they will cut rates by 25 basis points," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "They have completed the task of full employment and inflation returning to target, and the federal funds rate of around 5.5% is too high. Therefore, I think they need to quickly normalize interest rates and have a lot of room to do so." Jeffrey US economist Tom Simons said: "Although the tightening policy seems to be effective, it has not worked as they imagined, so the easing policy should also be seen as equally uncertain." "So if you're not sure, you shouldn't be in a hurry," said former Dallas Fed President Kaplan. "I guess they have different opinions." "From a risk management perspective, there are still some members who just want to be more cautious," said Seema Shah, an analyst at Principal Asset Management. For the Federal Reserve, it ultimately comes down to deciding which risk is greater - if they cut rates by 50 basis points, it will reignite inflationary pressures, and if they only cut rates by 25 basis points, it may lead to an economic recession. Because of the criticism of being too slow to respond to the inflation crisis, the Federal Reserve may take a passive response to the risk of an economic recession rather than an active one.

Many Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to be cautious in its first rate cut

Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley wrote in a report: "If employment data starts to weaken from here, the market may trade with a risk-averse tone, regardless of whether the Fed's first rate cut is 25 basis points or 50 basis points." Wilson is one of the most prominent bears before mid-2024. On the other hand, he said that if the employment situation improves, the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in a row by mid-2025, which may further support the valuation of US stocks. (Gold Ten)