Retail data exceeded expectations! The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 a.m.
Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the last important economic data, the US retail sales data for August, is known as the horror data, because retail sales represent US consumption, and consumption accounts for 70% of US GDP. Once the retail sales data explodes, the Fed will definitely cut interest rates sharply.
But there was good news last night. Retail sales data increased by 0.1% month-on-month, which was better than the market's expectation of a 0.2% decline. Although it is still declining compared to last month's 1%, it is already a shot in the arm for the market.
Nick from the Federal Reserve News Agency has published another article. This may be the last article before the Fed’s decision. If this article is authorized by the Fed, then there is a high probability that the interest rate will be cut by 50 basis points, because 50 basis points is mentioned more times than before. Of course, this is just my personal analysis and speculation.
So the Fed can move forward or backward tonight, it can cut 25 basis points or 50 basis points, so the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting 25 basis points is 37%, and the probability of cutting 50 basis points is 63%.
The interest rate decision will be announced on Thursday this week, and the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan on Friday. These decisions will affect the market trend at the macro level, so everyone must pay close attention when operating transactions.
Today's market analysis:
At 2 a.m. tonight (that is, on the 19th), the Federal Reserve will hold a rate meeting. Many people expect a 50% cut, while a few expect a 25% cut. In any case, this time it will be at least 25 basis points. Of course, a short-term rate cut cannot change anything. A long-term rate cut can release liquidity. When the rate cut begins, new funds will flow into the market.
BTC
All levels of BTC are currently on the long side. Today, pay attention to the support level below the small-level correction of 60275-59830-59270. As long as the 4-hour level close does not fall below 59270, the small-level insertion will still go up.
If the market continues to rise today, the upper targets/pressure levels will be around 61140–62045–62980
ETH
Ethereum is currently in a small-scale correction. Pay attention to the support levels below 2310-2281-2254. If it falls below 2310, the 4-hour level will start to pull back.
If the market wants to go up in 1/2 hour level today, it must stand firmly above 2338. As long as it stands firmly at this position, the small-level correction will be over. The upper target/pressure level of the market will be around 2365-2392-2427.
The two biggest key factors of the bull market
The first is the influx of a large amount of funds, and the second is a powerful narrative to take over. Both are indispensable!
This round of the market is actually quite awkward. It is not like Defi in 2020 and Gamefi in 2021, which have new narratives to take over external funds. Once there is no narrative relay, then Meme is the best narrative. Because the market has no new carrier, meme, a pure value consensus model, is forced to become a liquidity carrier.
I said before that a possible path is that external funds pile up these meme coins to a certain height, resulting in a lack of popularity and the market has to accept the mainstreaming of MEME in the short term.
The exchange only looks at the popularity and market reaction, so Binance's move is not surprising. What He Yi said makes sense. Under such popularity, high-valuation VCs are just making money. It is not too much to find some low-valuation ones to test the waters.
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