ING Bank: If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the market may interpret it as a panic move

Odaily Odaily News: ING Bank believes that the Fed is slightly more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but will send a dovish signal while remaining cautious. This may include some members voting for a 50 basis point cut and Powell opening the door to large-scale rate cuts in the future. A 25 basis point cut may lead to a rise in the US dollar, however, if our expectations that Powell will hold a dovish press conference are correct, it may be difficult for the US dollar to maintain its gains in the short term. If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, it will cause panic and weaken the US dollar. Then Powell needs to show that a 50 basis point cut is not a "panic" move, that is, the Fed is not overly worried about the recession and the job market. ING Group said that the euro may fluctuate narrowly against the US dollar before the Fed meets later, when the rate cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points will be very close. "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points and the market interprets it as a panic move, dollar weakness could be transmitted through the euro, yen and Swiss franc, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona could be hit," Francesco Pesole, an analyst at ING, said in a report. However, he said the Fed should cut rates by 25 basis points, which could cause the euro to initially fall below $1.10, but it could gradually recover in the coming days. (Jinshi)