Odaily星球日报讯 斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家彼得·卡迪罗表示，我原本预计美联储会降息 25 个基点，以为美联储会循序渐进，但他们比我想象的要“慷慨”得多。最令人意外的是，他们已经表示将进一步降息，年底前可能再降息 50 个基点。美联储的举动是鸽派的。我想他们最大的担忧是劳动力市场变得过于疲软，我认为这就是他们今天这么做的原因。市场最初的反应是积极的。但我们现在在市场上看到的情况可能会在未来几天发生变化，因为投资者开始担心经济。（金十）

经济学家：美联储最大的担忧是劳动力市场变得过于疲软

Odaily Odaily News: Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said, &quot;I originally expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, thinking that the Fed would proceed step by step, but they were much more &quot;generous&quot; than I thought. The most surprising thing is that they have said that they will cut interest rates further, and may cut interest rates by another 50 basis points before the end of the year. The Fed&#39;s move is dovish. I think their biggest concern is that the labor market has become too weak, and I think that&#39;s why they did it today. The initial market reaction was positive. But what we are seeing in the market now may change in the next few days as investors begin to worry about the economy. (Jinshi)

Economist: Fed's biggest concern is that the labor market is becoming too weak

According to Odaily, David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week may not be able to solve a core problem facing the market, which is how many rate cuts are expected for the rest of the year. When Federal Reserve officials last released their forecasts, they predicted only a 25-basis-point rate cut by 2024. But even if the Federal Reserve's new forecast is adjusted to two rate cuts this year, it will still be far below traders' expectations. Kelly pointed out that the futures market's pricing essentially reflects that by the end of December, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a full 100 basis points or more. The actual policy path will depend on the employment and inflation data released before the next meetings in November and December.

JPMorgan: Uncertainty about future Fed rate cuts will linger after this week's meeting

Odaily Planet Daily reported that in a recent article, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Dudley wrote that a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve would be meaningful. The two objectives of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate (price stability and maximum employment) have become more balanced, indicating that monetary policy should be neutral, neither suppressing nor promoting economic activity. However, the current short-term interest rate is still far above the neutral level. This difference needs to be corrected as soon as possible. A 50-basis-point rate cut would also be in line with the Federal Reserve's dot plot expectations. The market expects a total rate cut of at least 100 basis points by the end of 2024. If the Federal Reserve only cuts rates by 25 basis points now and expects a 50-basis-point cut later this year, it would send a hawkish signal and raise market doubts as to why a 50-basis-point cut was not made from the start. A 50-basis-point rate cut in September would help the Federal Reserve escape this dilemma.

Former New York Fed President Dudley: The Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Nordea Bank, a Swedish bank, looks ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, stating that the market has not yet determined the extent of the Fed's first rate cut. The bank expects the Fed to be inclined to cut rates by 25 basis points, but expects it to hint that this is just the first step in a series of rate cuts. The bank expects the Fed members to forecast two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in November and December, and another 100 basis points of cuts next year, for a total of 175 basis points of cuts. The bank said: "If our forecast is correct, the Fed's performance over the next year will be very different from market expectations, which could lead to disappointing results." However, the message from Fed Chairman Powell will be that the Fed will take action as needed to support a soft landing, and will open the door to more frequent and larger rate cuts. (Jinshi)