Odaily星球日报讯 摩根士丹利预计英国央行将以 6：3 的投票比例支持利率不变。但政策措辞可能出现鸽派调整，暗示可能会在 11 月采取行动。 “考虑到 8 月份以来的全部数据，以及现有限制措施的规模，我们认为，市场对 9 月份降息的定价应该略高一些。但即便如此，我们也认为降息的可能性不会超过 30%。”大摩预计，英国央行明年 QT 的规模为 1000 亿英镑，此前预计为 900 亿，但仍认为风险倾向于更低，“11 月是英国央行今年的关键会议，我们预计它将为更快的降息步伐奠定基础，因为服务价格的反通胀势头正在增强。我们预计 11 月和 12 月将降息，到明年 8 月银行利率将达到 3.25%。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 摩根士丹利预计英国央行将以 6：3 的投票比例支持利率不变。但政策措辞可能出现鸽派调整，暗示可能会在 11 月采取行动。“考虑到 8 月份以来的全部数据，以及现有限制措施的规模，我们认为，市场对 9 月份降息的定价应该略高一些。但即便如此，我们也认为降息的可能性不会超过 30%。”大摩预计，英国央行明年 QT 的规模为 1000 亿英镑，此前预计为 900 亿，但仍认为风险倾向于更低，“11 月是英国央行今年的关键会议，我们预计它将为更快的降息步伐奠定基础，因为服务价格的反通胀势头正在增强。我们预计 11 月和 12 月将降息，到明年 8 月银行利率将达到 3.25%。”（金十）

摩根士丹利：英国央行的政策措辞可能出现鸽派微调

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to vote 6:3 to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the policy wording may see a dovish adjustment, hinting that action may be taken in November. "Considering all the data since August and the scale of the existing restrictive measures, we believe the market's pricing for a rate cut in September should be slightly higher. But even so, we still believe the probability of a rate cut will not exceed 30%." Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England's QT next year to be £100 billion, up from the previous estimate of £90 billion, but still believes the risk is tilted to the downside. "November is a key meeting for the Bank of England this year, and we expect it to lay the groundwork for a faster pace of rate cuts, as the disinflationary momentum in service prices is strengthening. We expect rate cuts in November and December, with the bank rate reaching 3.25% by August next year."

Odaily Odaily News Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England to vote 6:3 to support unchanged interest rates. But there may be a dovish adjustment in policy rhetoric, suggesting that action may be taken in November. &quot;Given all the data since August and the scale of existing restrictions, we believe that the market should price a slightly higher rate cut in September. But even so, we think the probability of a rate cut will not exceed 30%.&quot; Morgan Stanley expects the Bank of England&#39;s QT to be 100 billion pounds next year, compared with a previous forecast of 90 billion, but still believes that risks tend to be lower. &quot;November is a key meeting of the Bank of England this year, and we expect it to lay the foundation for a faster pace of rate cuts as anti-inflationary momentum in service prices is building. We expect rate cuts in November and December, with the bank rate reaching 3.25% by August next year.&quot; (Jinshi)

Morgan Stanley: Bank of England's policy language may be slightly dovish

The Royal Bank of Canada continues to expect the United States to achieve normalization rather than recession, and the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The median of the Fed's economic forecast summary (SEP) is expected to show a 75 basis point rate cut this year, higher than the 25 basis point forecast in July, consistent with the bank's forecast. In addition, the bank believes that Fed Chairman Powell's remarks may maintain a cautious attitude - hinting at future rate cuts, without committing to a predetermined path, in order to have greater flexibility in future decision-making. (Gold Ten)

RBC: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, and Powell remains cautious

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Nordea Bank, a Swedish bank, looks ahead to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, stating that the market has not yet determined the extent of the Fed's first rate cut. The bank expects the Fed to be inclined to cut rates by 25 basis points, but expects it to hint that this is just the first step in a series of rate cuts. The bank expects the Fed members to forecast two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in November and December, and another 100 basis points of cuts next year, for a total of 175 basis points of cuts. The bank said: "If our forecast is correct, the Fed's performance over the next year will be very different from market expectations, which could lead to disappointing results." However, the message from Fed Chairman Powell will be that the Fed will take action as needed to support a soft landing, and will open the door to more frequent and larger rate cuts. (Jinshi)

Nordic Securities: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points tonight, opening the door to a substantial rate cut

According to a report by Kerry Craig, the global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will take a more cautious approach to the easing cycle. Craig stated that Powell has communicated well by balancing "the urgency to return to a neutral interest rate" and acknowledging "the relatively stable economic conditions." Craig added that the focus has shifted more towards prioritizing employment over inflation. The scale of rate cuts may not be as important as the ultimate goal, which is to lower the policy rate to a level closer to the Fed's neutral stance by the end of 2026, with an expected 150 basis point cut by the end of 2025. Craig said that if nominal growth and the easing cycle remain stable, stocks and bonds should benefit.