Solana ETF Approval Chances Drop to Just 3%

Polymarket's forecast for the Solana ETF has dropped to an all-time low of just 3%. However, some experts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects.

There is widespread agreement on the importance of regulatory change, but there is much disagreement about the ideal form of change.

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Solana ETF unlikely to succeed

Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform, has again downplayed the likelihood of a Solana ETF. Since the site began taking bets on a Solana ETF, the probability of its success has never exceeded 15%. However, over the past month, that low probability has collapsed, now sitting at a dismal 3%.

In other words, the Solana ETF has always been considered a long shot. However, it still has a number of advantages that make it more likely to succeed than most other Cryptoasset .

After a long struggle, the SEC approved ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the same year, and many experts see Solana as a potential candidate for the third spot. Brazil has announced its approval, and hopes that this ETF will be a valuable test case.

Is there any hope?

Nate Geraci, President of The ETF Store, flatly denied it on social media.

“It’s hard to imagine any more crypto ETFs launching under the current administration. There’s nothing to suggest a Solana or XRP ETF could be successful in the next year or two given the current climate,”

Geraci said.

In other words, the only hope for the Solana ETF may come from the US presidential election, according to Geraci, although he has not explicitly endorsed any candidate.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, is more optimistic. In a recent interview, he said that Bitcoin ETFs have been fighting rejection for 10 years. However, the SEC is finally allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024. The first approval could open the floodgates, and subsequent wins will be easier.

“In my view, addressing uncertainty is the most important factor. We think those things will converge. There will need to be regulatory changes,”

he added.

Hougan seems less inclined to link ETF performance to the upcoming election. Instead, he believes regulatory uncertainty will be resolved during the campaign, and new ETF efforts will do better with that clarity. Bitwise plans to lead those efforts through data.

“Bitwise has always led with data in its SEC filings. We are very excited about the Solana ecosystem. We think it is powerful. We are working,”