Author: Martin Young, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Baishui, Jinse Finance
Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market could be on the verge of a breakout if historical cycle patterns repeat themselves, one analyst says.
Analyst Rekt Capital noted in a Sept. 24 article that in previous market cycles, Bitcoin broke out from its re-accumulation range between 154 and 161 days after the halving.
The current Bitcoin halving event takes place on April 20, 157 days from now, so we are in the breakout time frame , he said, adding: “History shows that this is Bitcoin’s ‘breakout moment’.”
Source: Rekt Capital
In the 2016 halving, BTC broke through the range oscillation accumulation stage 154 days after the halving, while in 2020, it broke through the range oscillation accumulation stage 161 days after the halving that year.
The analyst noted that history doesn’t always repeat itself in a copy-and-paste fashion, but if it does in this cycle:
“Then Bitcoin should break out of its re-accumulation range in the next few days, this week.”
The analyst also compared cyclical returns, noting that September is typically bad for Bitcoin, while the fourth quarter typically sees better returns.
However, he said on September 21, “Who would have thought that Bitcoin would record the highest average return in September this cycle?”
BTC has returned about 9% so far this month, surpassing the second-highest level in September 2016, when it returned 6% that month.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has seen positive returns in nine of the past 11 Octobers, with bullish months such as October 2017 and October 2021 posting even greater gains of 48% and 40%, respectively.
Source: Rekt Capital
Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past six months but needs to break above the previous high of $73,738 to enter a new price discovery range. It is currently just 14.6% away from that level.
According to Coingecko, as of writing, the BTC price has fallen 1.7% in the past 24 hours to $62,863. On September 23, the BTC price hit a monthly high of $65,600.
