1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the first time in four years, and the market reacted violently
On September 18, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020, with a margin of 50 basis points. The decision was passed by a vote of 11 to 1, with only Federal Reserve Board member Bowman opposing and advocating a 25 basis point rate cut.
The Fed stressed in its statement that it will firmly support full employment and is more confident that inflation will fall back to the target level. The dot plot shows that slightly more than half of policymakers expect to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points in each of the remaining two meetings this year. The market reacted strongly to this, with the three major US stock indexes rising briefly before falling back, and gold prices hitting a record high. Although the rate cut was in line with market expectations, Powell said at the press conference that future policy directions still need to be adjusted based on economic data, triggering market concerns about the economic outlook.
The U.S. housing market has good news, with mortgage rates hitting a two-year low
Last week, U.S. mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since September 2022, spurring home purchases and refinancing applications. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), as of September 13, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contract rate fell 14 basis points to 6.15%, falling for seven consecutive weeks. The average 15-year mortgage rate also fell to 5.42%, a two-year low.
In addition, housing starts rose to 1.356 million in August, a four-month high, and building permits also reached the highest level in six months. The MBA mortgage application index for home purchases rose 5.4%, and the refinancing application index soared more than 24%. These data show that market confidence in US real estate is increasing.
(2) Web3 field:
l HashKey Jeffrey: Interest rate cuts lead the crypto market into a new round of rising cycle
The Federal Reserve announced that it would lower the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, said that this rate cut marks that "the darkness before dawn has passed" and a new round of tidal market is about to come. The rate cut reflects the Federal Reserve's concerns about the economic environment and injects vitality into the global financial market.
In this context, Bitcoin, as "digital gold", performed strongly, breaking through $62,000 in the short term. Ding pointed out that the entire crypto market is expected to usher in a new round of market amid loose monetary policy, and Bitcoin's performance is more affected by the liquidity of the US dollar rather than the outlook for the US economy.
As the interest rate cut cycle continues, the crypto market may enter a longer upward channel. Although market volatility remains, this round of market is expected to attract more funds and innovations, driving the development of the entire crypto ecosystem.
Swiss Stock Exchange plans to launch cryptocurrency exchange, targeting institutional investor market
SIX Swiss Exchange, Switzerland's largest stock exchange, is exploring the establishment of a cryptocurrency trading platform in Europe. Bjørn Sibbern, global head of exchanges at SIX Group, said that cryptocurrencies have become a recognized asset class and the company is studying the creation of a platform to help facilitate trading of cryptocurrency spot and derivatives.
SIX Swiss Exchange plans to leverage Switzerland’s reputation and advanced crypto laws to attract large traditional investors who are increasingly interested in trading digital assets. The exchange hopes to provide institutional investors with a safe and reliable cryptocurrency trading venue by leveraging Switzerland’s regulatory environment.
2. Hot events
Macro environment:
ByteDance is working with TSMC to develop its own 5nm AI chips, and plans to achieve mass production by 2026 to reduce its dependence on Nvidia. According to reports, ByteDance has ordered more than $2 billion worth of Nvidia H20 chips this year, and plans to have TSMC manufacture hundreds of thousands of self-developed chips, which is expected to cost billions of dollars less than buying from Nvidia.
ByteDance hopes to achieve four times the computing performance of a single H100 chip through its own chip cluster at a similar cost. This move is a response to the current intensified competition in the AI field and the shortage of Nvidia chips. ByteDance's self-developed chip is currently in the design stage and uses a 5nm process, the same as Nvidia's upcoming flagship AI chip.
Insilico Medicine announced that its small molecule drug ISM001-055, which was fully designed with the assistance of AI, has achieved positive results in a Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The 12-week trial showed that ISM001-055 showed good safety at all dose levels and showed a clear dose-dependent efficacy trend in the forced vital capacity (FVC) indicator of lung function improvement, especially in patients with a once-daily dose of 60 mg.
This achievement marks a major breakthrough in AI-driven drug development, demonstrating that AI can not only accelerate drug discovery, but also design innovative drugs with real clinical value. Insilico Medicine plans to discuss subsequent Phase IIb studies with regulators and conduct parallel trials in the United States to further verify the efficacy of ISM001-055. This success provides preliminary evidence for the potential of the TNIK target in the treatment of IPF and opens up new possibilities for the company's future financing and listing strategies.
Web3 Field:
HashKey Global announced that its first asset Aleo will be listed on Coinbase soon. Aleo officials have just announced that the mainnet has been officially launched. Coinbase has also confirmed that it will support Aleo (ALEO). The current price of ALEO has risen from the issue price of $0.3 to $4.2. This decision to choose to list on the world's two largest compliant exchanges has attracted widespread attention from the market.
After the Aleo mainnet is launched, it will provide developers with support for building applications and products that solve real-world problems, including secure identity authentication, scalable compliance payments, trust-minimized Oracle infrastructure, hidden information games, and useful proof of work. Coinbase Assets confirmed the news on the social platform.
3. Hot topic narrative
With the popularity of Internet of Things (IoT) devices, the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePin) is gradually attracting widespread attention in the industry. By combining blockchain technology with the Internet of Things, DePin redefines the management and control mode of physical devices, showing the potential to cause disruptive changes in the traditional infrastructure field. Traditional infrastructure projects usually face problems such as high service costs and limited innovation. DePin provides a new solution that realizes decentralized management and control of physical devices through distributed ledger and smart contract technology, thereby improving the transparency, credibility and security of the system.
DePin's architecture includes the application layer, governance layer, data layer, blockchain layer, and infrastructure layer. The application layer directly faces users and provides various specific applications and services, which affects the user experience and the popularity of the network. The governance layer is responsible for formulating and enforcing network rules to ensure the transparency and fairness of the decision-making process. The data layer manages and stores all data in the network to ensure data integrity and privacy protection. The blockchain layer records all transactions and smart contracts to ensure that the data cannot be tampered with. The infrastructure layer supports the operation of the entire DePin network and ensures its high availability and stability.
AI technology plays an important role in DePin, realizing functions such as fault prediction, real-time monitoring and intelligent maintenance through intelligent management and automation. AI can also optimize resource allocation, improve network efficiency, and support intelligent decision-making through data analysis. In terms of security, AI can monitor abnormal activities in real time and automatically respond to potential threats, thereby enhancing the network's security protection capabilities.
DePin has significant advantages in AI applications, including resource sharing and optimization, data privacy and security, enhanced reliability, and transparent incentive mechanisms. Through a decentralized data market, DePin provides a wider range of data sources for AI models while reducing operating costs.
In terms of specific projects, Filecoin, as a decentralized storage network, solves the data security and privacy issues faced by traditional storage platforms through distributed data storage. Io.net is a distributed GPU computing platform that provides flexible and low-cost computing power rental services. Bittensor has created a decentralized AI model market, allowing independent developers to directly profit, breaking the monopoly of large companies on the AI market.
Although DePin has shown great potential, it still faces challenges such as scalability, interoperability and regulatory compliance. In the future, the development of DePin will depend on the resolution of these key issues, and it is expected to play an important role in a wide range of application scenarios and reshape the operation mode of physical infrastructure.
4. Potential Catalyst
According to The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said that although Ethereum (ETH) seems to be neglected at present, its poor price performance may be reversed as the year draws to a close. The report pointed out that ETH's recent weakness is mainly affected by multiple factors, including risks related to the US presidential election in November, increased competition from other blockchains such as Solana, token economics challenges, and mixed reactions to the launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States.
Hougan believes that as the November election approaches and the regulatory environment becomes clearer, the market may re-evaluate the value of Ethereum.
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source public blockchain platform with smart contract functions. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Although $ETH has fallen sharply in recent days due to reduced income and whale withdrawal, the market is still mainly optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key projects:
· CATI
Catizen is a casual cat-raising chain game based on the TON ecosystem. It was developed by the Pluto Studio team and is the first game on its GameFi platform. The project combines cute cat images with innovative gameplay and quickly attracted a large number of players. Catizen adopts the "PLAY-TO-AIRDROP" mode. Users can not only enjoy the fun of raising cats in the game, but also get $CATI rewards through game activities. $CATI will be launched on the HashKey Global exchange on September 15, 2024, with the recharge function open, the withdrawal function will be launched on September 21, and spot trading is scheduled to start on September 20.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. MIGGLES(@MrMigglesOnBase /X)
$MIGGLES is a meme coin based on the Base chain. The story of Mister Miggles revolves around a cat that became popular due to a photo and then became an Internet meme. Coinbase released a short film about Mister Miggles, telling the story of how the cat spread through social media and evolved into a meme coin. The project is also combined with Coinbase's "Onchain Summer" theme event to encourage creators to develop projects on the chain.
2. $michi (@michionsolana /X)
$michi is a cryptocurrency based on the Solana blockchain that aims to combine meme culture with a community-driven economic model. $michi's design is inspired by a cute cat image and aims to attract a wide range of user groups, especially fans of meme culture.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. $mfer(@sartoshi_rip /X)
$mfer is a meme coin on the base chain. The project is led by artist sartoshi_rip. MFERS is a collection of 10,000 unique digital artworks featuring stick figures created by anonymous artist and meme creator Sartoshi. The project was launched in November 2021 and has since gained a large following in the NFT community. It was officially released on March 30, 2024, and the price soared to over $0.03 on the same day.
2. ZEUS (@ZeusNetworkHQ /X)
As a decentralized financial infrastructure project, Zeus Network leverages the high performance of Solana and the security of Bitcoin to provide an open communication layer that enables developers to create and deploy diverse applications between different blockchains. It aims to connect the Solana and Bitcoin ecosystems and promote seamless interaction between the two.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the plate
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
