In the past few days, I found that many of my friends seemed to be busy. Some were busy buying on-chain meme, some were busy taking advantage of airdrops, and some were busy chasing high prices... Moreover, with the release of CZ (CZ, the founder of Binance) from prison, the market seemed to have some new possibilities in the volatility. So, I found that many people began to shout that the bull market is coming, and even some Chinese KOLs were working shill to encourage everyone to buy certain on-chain meme!
In fact, we also mentioned in the previous article: Although the market has improved in recent days, and it seems that many MemeCoins have begun to create FOMO sentiment again, the risks are still there. Overall, the market has not yet reached the point of a complete reversal and is still in a volatile market. The rise in the past few days is most likely just a temporary rebound.
If you are more concerned about the short-term market, then we think that the trend of Bitcoin in the next few days may need to focus on the position of around US$67,000. If this position can be effectively broken through, then a new round of market is likely to start, otherwise it is still possible to continue to fluctuate downward. As for the possible decline after the failure of the breakthrough, it is necessary to re-focus on the positions of US$64,000, US$59,000, and US$55,000. For those friends who are still waiting for a callback to US$45,000, I can only say that if there is no major black swan event next, it should be difficult to wait in the short term.
In previous articles of Hualihuawai, we have sorted out some experiences to avoid losing money in the bull market. In this issue, we will continue to explore and supplement the content in this regard.
Many people think that as long as the bull market comes, they will make money, but this is also the time when mistakes are most likely to be made. Therefore, we need to follow some basic experience or principles in thinking or operation to avoid making mistakes in the bull market as much as possible.
1. Don’t be blind
Hearing others shouting that the bull market is coming, and then watching others posting various screenshots of profits, many people can't help themselves, so they just blindly buy whatever others shout, and end up buying a bunch of projects they don't understand, and all the experiences and lessons they learned from losing money before are thrown behind their heads.
Some people invest using established strategies, while others invest based on their personal emotions, but it seems that everyone has the same goal: to make money.
Everyone wants to make money, but the problem is that if someone makes money, someone else has to lose money. In other words, if you can't figure out where the money you make comes from, then you may be the one who loses money.
Many people buy a lot of coins right away because they are afraid of missing out, and they call it diversification and diversification, thinking that if there is a coin that can increase by a hundred or a thousand times, they will get rich. Although in theory, this idea can be successful, and there are indeed some successful cases, but why do you firmly believe that the next person who can succeed in this way will be you?
Anyway, in my opinion, the more currencies a person holds in his position, the more time and energy he will need to manage them, and the easier it will be to make mistakes.
In addition to the gambling mentality, buying a bunch of things that you don’t understand is essentially a lack of cognition/belief caused by emotionality. Belief often determines whether a person can keep going all out and not make excessive diversification.
A few days ago, there was a new friend who followed Hualihuawai who was quite interesting. He left me a message and asked: I heard that there has been a market for On-Chain meme coins again these days. Which On-Chain meme coins have you bought recently? Can you share with me some coins with the potential to increase by 100 times?
My answer is: I don’t know, I don’t buy MemeCoin.
Then the other party expressed surprise. He may find it difficult to understand that a blogger who has written about MemeCoin does not buy MemeCoin himself. In fact, this is not difficult to understand. Here is a random example that may not be so appropriate. It is like a blogger who likes to do car research and evaluation. It is impossible for him to buy all the cars on the market and park them in his garage!
Investing not only requires rationality (such as methods, strategies, etc.), but also needs to be considered in combination with one's own situation (such as risk preference, time and energy, etc.), rather than blindly performing mindless operations.
I have shared this in previous articles on Hualihuawai. Our investment strategy in recent years has mainly been to invest in Bitcoin. Taking this cycle as an example, starting from 2022, we have invested in Bitcoin for a total of 20 months, and the average purchase cost of this batch of Bitcoin is about US$25,000. But until now, we have not sold it, so some friends asked, why didn’t you sell it at US$74,000? Look at the price now, it has fallen. I saw many KOLs say that they successfully escaped the top at that time. If you didn’t escape the top successfully, it means that you still don’t understand the market well enough.
I have never given a direct answer to such messages and questions before, mainly because I am too lazy to reply to such questions. Here I can give a brief reply:
First of all, our fixed investment is not blind, but disciplined, that is, we have our own plans and goals (the specific plans have been introduced in the previous articles of Hualihuawai). US$74,000 is not our goal, so why should we sell at that position!
Secondly, our core strategy is to hoard coins, not to do short-term swing trading. We can't and don't want to do things like selling high and buying low, and we can't predict the so-called bull top (including bear bottom). Since some people can accurately escape the top every time (including accurate buy the dips), that is their ability, but we don't have this ability.
Again, we only do spot transactions, do not play contracts or use leverage, and have no pressure to withdraw funds. What we care more about is not the real-time price of Bitcoin, but how many Bitcoins we have hoarded now.
Finally, let’s take a step back and say that even if Bitcoin does not reach our preset target (around $100,000) in this bull market (before the end of 2025), we just need to keep holding it. Why must we sell it? In fact, whether we sell it or not will not affect our plan to continue to invest more Bitcoin on a monthly basis in the next bear market cycle.
2. Don’t be greedy
Of course, like most people, in addition to holding Bitcoin, I will also take out no more than 10% of my position to buy a few Altcoin, and trade them occasionally to keep a feel for it.
...This article is to be continued. We will continue to supplement and update the remaining content through Huali Huawai.
This is the end of our sharing of this issue. For more articles, please visit the homepage of Hualihuawai. The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, which is only used for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.
