OCBC Bank: The Federal Reserve is expected to further cut interest rates by 50 basis points this year and 125 basis points next year

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Singapore's OCBC Bank pointed out that although inflation has not been completely eliminated, a 50-basis-point rate cut is not the norm. In our view, further cuts in the US federal funds rate from now on do not require an economic recession. Our basic forecast is that the federal funds rate will be cut by 25 basis points at the FOMC meetings in November and December, with a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts by 2025. We maintain a downward trend in the 2Y US Treasury yield. The next notable level for the 2Y US Treasury yield is 3.83%, followed by 3.70%. For the 10Y US Treasury, we have believed in the past few weeks that without a series of weak data, the real yield on the 10Y US Treasury would be difficult to break out of the 1.5-1.7% range; now the real yield on the 10Y US Treasury has broken out of this range to 1.74%, and it may take a series of soft data to push it back into the aforementioned range. (Gold Ten)