The price of Toncoin (TON) is facing increasing headwinds that could push it below $5 in the near term. The value of the Telegram-linked altcoin has been on a consistent downward trajectory since September 28, experiencing a 10% decline.
Its on-chain and technical setup suggest the likelihood of an extended drawdown to a monthly low. This analysis explores what TON holders should anticipate.
Toncoin Witnesses Spike in Sell-Offs
Toncoin’s supply on exchanges has spiked over the past week. Santiment’s data pegs it at 1.6 million TON tokens at press time, rising by 7% in just seven days.
An asset’s supply on exchanges spikes when many holders are moving their assets from private wallets. This is often a bearish sign because when tokens move to exchanges, they become more accessible for trading. The increase in supply can create selling pressure, which may lead to a price decline if the sell orders outweigh the buy orders.
Read more: 6 Best Toncoin (TON) Wallets in 2024
Toncoin Supply on Exchanges. Source: SantimentConversely, during the week in review, the amount of TON tokens held outside of exchanges has dipped, confirming the profit-taking activity of its holders. Currently, 9.93 million TON tokens are held outside of exchanges, having dropped by 0.3% in the past seven days.
Toncoin Supply Outside Exchanges. Source: SantimentAdditionally, TON’s consistently declining netflow of large holders further supports this bearish outlook. According to IntoTheBlock, the netflow of TON’s large holders — those who own more than 0.1% of its circulating supply — has plummeted by 143% in the past week.
This metric tracks the buying and selling activity of these major investors, and when it declines, it indicates that large holders are selling off their assets. Large holders or whales have a significant influence over market sentiment. When they sell, it can create a sense of uncertainty or fear among smaller investors, leading to increased sell-offs.
Toncoin Large Holders Netflow. Source: IntoTheBlockTON Price Prediction: A Monthly Low Is on the Horizon
With the increase in its supply on exchanges and a decline in whale activity, Toncoin appears set to continue its downward trend. If the sell-offs persist, Toncoin’s price could drop by 16%, reaching a monthly low of $4.42 — a level not seen since September 6.
Read more: 6 Best Toncoin (TON) Wallets in 2024
Toncoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingViewHowever, if market sentiment improves and selling pressure eases, the token may reverse course and attempt to break through the $5.90 resistance. A successful breakout could set the stage for a rally, potentially pushing Toncoin’s price towards $6.81.
