Overview of key macro events next week: Fed officials will continue to speak, and uncertainty about interest rate cuts will increase

Odaily Planet Daily Report: This week, comments from Federal Reserve officials such as Williams, Goolsbee, and Barkin suggest that they believe the September CPI data is negligible inflation data, while Bostic said in an interview that he will consider not cutting interest rates in one of the two remaining meetings this year. However, the market still seems quite confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points as usual at its next meeting, but the Fed will not be as aggressive as previously imagined. Pay attention to the views of Waller and Koogler next week. There is a lack of important US economic data in the first half of next week, and the market will have to wait until next Thursday to get the US September retail sales data. The market's reaction may be simple - data that unexpectedly exceeds expectations will support the dollar, and vice versa. CFTC data shows that as of October 8, speculative market participants, including hedge funds, asset management companies and other institutions, reduced their bets on a weakening of the dollar from $13.6 billion the previous week to about $9.4 billion. Geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict have also driven demand for the dollar and other safe-haven currencies such as the Swiss franc. The dollar has risen more than 2% in less than two weeks in October. A foreign exchange expert at Crédit Agricole revealed that recent meetings with clients show that the dollar's rise in October so far has made foreign exchange investors wonder if the "dollar king" title is returning, and the macro events worth watching next week include: Monday 23:00, US September New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Tuesday 03:00, Fed Governor Waller speaks on the economic outlook; Tuesday 23:30, 2024 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly, speaks and participates in a Q&A session at an event hosted by NYU Stern School of Business; Wednesday 20:30, US September import price index MoM; Wednesday 01:05, Fed Governor Koogler speaks; Thursday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voter, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, gives a welcome address at an annual conference; Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 12, US September retail sales MoM, US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; Friday 07:30, Japan September core CPI YoY; Friday 10:00, China Q3 GDP YoY, China September retail sales YoY, China September industrial production YoY; Friday 22:00, 2026 FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, speaks.