Analysis: Bitcoin's October start is flat, but may start seasonal rally in the second half of the month

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitcoin rose to a two-week high today, and Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets, said: "The market may view China's stimulus measures as bullish news for Bitcoin, as previously people believed that capital flows from Bitcoin into the Chinese stock market were depressing the price of cryptocurrencies." The US presidential election may provide another support for digital assets. Over the past few days, the prediction market has shifted, believing that the Republican candidate Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, has a higher chance of winning than the Democratic challenger Vice President Harris. At the same time, Mt.Gox delayed the deadline for repaying its remaining assets to creditors by a year, to October 31, 2025. Arkham Intelligence estimates that its remaining assets are about $2.9 billion. This delay has alleviated concerns about creditors seeking to sell Bitcoin to pay, leading to oversupply. Benjamin Celermajer, co-chief investment officer of Magnet Capital, said: "The recent improvement in Trump's polls will amplify the market's receptiveness, and the positive impact of good news on prices. Good news such as the delay in Mt.Gox's compensation plan will receive a more positive response." Data shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 20% increase in October over the past 10 years, but this October's start was weak, with almost no change. In a report, Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, wrote: "Historical data shows that the seasonal strength of the crypto market in October usually tends towards the second half of the month."