Today, the global cryptocurrency market has seen a significant rise, with the market capitalization increasing by 1.98% to reach $2.24 trillion. Trading activity has surged, with a 27.28% increase in 24-hour trading volume, reaching $57.9 billion.
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Bitcoin price remains the focus of traders, with a slight increase of 1.73% in the past 24 hours, breaking through the $64,000 mark and reaching $64,850 before falling back to $64,472 at the time of writing.
On the macroeconomic front, the strong US non-farm payroll report was followed by a higher-than-expected September Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, the September Producer Price Index (PPI) released last Friday remained flat, easing the market's concerns after the CPI release. Currently, a 25-basis-point rate cut in November is still the market's mainstream expectation.
The Role of the Federal Reserve
On September 19, the Federal Reserve initiated an easing cycle with a 50-basis-point rate cut, the first such move in 4 years. US stocks and Bitcoin rose in response, and the overall crypto market also saw a much-needed rebound. With the stimulus of macroeconomic policies, can the crypto market end its "prolonged" period of volatility and rise again?
The October Rebound is Coming!
At the same time, October has historically been a challenging month for Bitcoin, but the data shows that it usually reaches its lowest point around October 7-11.
This suggests that we may be on the verge of a price increase. As important events in the fourth quarter approach, traders are closely watching the market. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, which could bring more capital to volatile assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, the upcoming US presidential election is shaking the cryptocurrency market, and discussions about digital asset regulation are heating up. Forecasts indicate that former President Trump may be more favorable towards cryptocurrencies, while Vice President Harris may take a more cautious approach.
So, what's next for the market?
Weekly level: The RSI indicator is neutral, and the MACD has completed a retest of the 0 axis and is expected to form a golden cross. Weekly indicators are difficult to change significantly without a major negative event (black swan), as they represent long-term trends.
3-day level: The MACD indicator has been in negative territory since early July and is now gradually returning to positive territory.
Daily level: After the rally from $52,550 to $66,498, the MACD has retraced to the 0 axis and is currently forming a golden cross.
The above indicators suggest that, in the absence of a black swan event, the market is supported for an upward trend.
The focus should now be on Altcoins. If BTC can see a significant rally, it could boost the sentiment and prepare for the next wave of Altcoin rallies.
Ethereum and Solana Lead the Altcoin Rally
The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum (ETH), has risen 2.72%, breaking above $2,500. Solana (SOL) has also performed strongly, rising 3.66% and continuing to consolidate its position as the top Altcoin competitor. On the other hand, XRP (XRP) has only seen a slight increase of 0.12%, maintaining steady growth.
The Altcoin Market Cap is Starting to Look Bullish
As the Altcoin market remains above the uptrend line, it is still following the upward trend. Over the past three days, the RSI has risen from 45 to 53, indicating that market conditions are favorable for an upward move.
If the TOTAL3 index remains above the key resistance area, the Altcoin market may continue to rebound, and a sustained rebound could signal the start of the much-anticipated Altcoin season.
How to select promising Altcoins in the current market?
Since we are looking for dark horses, they should have the following characteristics:
1. The market cap should not be too large, preferably below $100 million.
2. It should have been listed on at least a few second-tier exchanges, and ideally have a trading pair on Binance, such as Myro Rats NEIRO.
3. The project team should have been actively accumulating recently, preparing for a future price surge.
4. Newly launched coins in 2024 or airdropped coins, such as PIZZA DOG, are preferred.
5. Analyze the coin's distribution structure, where the majority of the supply is controlled by the project team after retail investors have been washed out.
6. The project team should have the resources, funds, and past successful projects, such as the team behind Dog being from the Rune Stone project, and the team behind Pizza Sats being from the Unisats project, as well as the team behind Neiro Ordi being from Binance.
In summary: Low market cap + well-funded project team + good background + abundant resources + high control of the supply + thorough market manipulation + new coin = potential dark horse Altcoin
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