Odaily星球日报讯 比特币本月表现领先于股票和黄金，因越来越多的迹象表明，美国对加密货币行业的监管前景将在即将到来的总统大选后有所改善。比特币在 10 月上涨了 4%，超过本月迄今为止的全球股票指数和黄金。 “Crypto Is Macro Now”通讯的作者 Noelle Acheson 表示：“这一上涨主要是由美国总统大选推动的，最初来自特朗普在预测市场和民意调查中的领先地位，后来来自哈里斯竞选团队关于加密市场的半支持性声明。我还没有看到哈里斯加密货币政策的细节，但它听起来没有拜登政府那么负面。”（彭博社）

Odaily星球日报讯 比特币本月表现领先于股票和黄金，因越来越多的迹象表明，美国对加密货币行业的监管前景将在即将到来的总统大选后有所改善。比特币在 10 月上涨了 4%，超过本月迄今为止的全球股票指数和黄金。“Crypto Is Macro Now”通讯的作者 Noelle Acheson 表示：“这一上涨主要是由美国总统大选推动的，最初来自特朗普在预测市场和民意调查中的领先地位，后来来自哈里斯竞选团队关于加密市场的半支持性声明。我还没有看到哈里斯加密货币政策的细节，但它听起来没有拜登政府那么负面。”（彭博社）

分析：美国加密行业监管前景将在11月大选后有所改善，提振比特币价格

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitcoin's performance this month has outpaced stocks and gold, as there are increasing signs that the regulatory outlook for the cryptocurrency industry in the United States will improve after the upcoming presidential election. Bitcoin rose 4% in October, outperforming the global stock index and gold so far this month. Noelle Acheson, the author of the "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, said: "This rise is mainly driven by the US presidential election, initially from Trump's lead in prediction markets and opinion polls, and later from the Harris campaign team's semi-supportive statement on the crypto market. I haven't seen the details of Harris' cryptocurrency policy yet, but it sounds less negative than the Biden administration."(Bloomberg)

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Bitcoin's performance this month has outpaced stocks and gold, as there are increasing signs that the regulatory outlook for the cryptocurrency industry in the United States will improve after the upcoming presidential election. Bitcoin rose 4% in October, outperforming the global stock index and gold so far this month. Noelle Acheson, the author of "Crypto Is Macro Now" newsletter, said: "This rise is mainly driven by the US presidential election, initially from Trump's lead in prediction markets and polls, and later from the Harris campaign team's semi-supportive statement on the crypto market. I haven't seen the details of Harris' cryptocurrency policy yet, but it sounds less negative than the Biden administration."

Analysis: US crypto regulatory outlook to improve after November election, boosting Bitcoin prices

Vice President Kamala Harris will announce her support for a "regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets" during a campaign speech in Erie, Pennsylvania, her campaign team announced on Monday morning.

The campaign team said the speech will be part of a broader "Opportunity Agenda" address aimed at strengthening Harris' support among Black male voters, but did not provide details on what Harris might specifically mention about the digital asset industry.

A press release stated: "Vice President Harris knows that over 20% of African Americans own or have owned cryptocurrency assets, which is why her plan will ensure..."

Harris mentions cryptocurrency regulation for the first time in her campaign plan

According to the latest weekly report from Matrixport, macroeconomic and market sentiment fluctuations have led to a return of global capital to traditional financial markets, exacerbating the downward pressure on <Token>. The linkage between US stocks and non-farm data has driven a short-term upward trend in <BTC>, but as a risk asset, <BTC> has retreated along with US stocks. Small and medium-cap <Token>s have outperformed <BTC>, indicating that the cryptocurrency market still has a high degree of speculation during the capital inflow period. <BTC> is fluctuating around $60,000, with significant selling pressure and no stable upward trend yet. <ETH> demand is weak, and although decentralized applications provide support, its price performance is inferior to <BTC>. The rise in global economic uncertainty has increased the volatility in the options market, and institutions are using options to hedge market risks. Before the US elections in November, the expected volatility in the options market has reached a peak, and institutions are avoiding violent fluctuations by pre-positioning. The launch of Bitcoin ETFs has revitalized the cryptocurrency options market, and institutions are inclined to profit from volatility trading. Cryptocurrency arbitrage opportunities have decreased, and capital has shifted to traditional financial markets, leading to tight liquidity, with volatility trading becoming an important strategy.

Matrixport: Expectations of volatility in the options market have reached a peak before the US election

On October 14, QCP Capital posted on its official channel that BTC rose from $62,000 to $65,000, and about $80 million in BTC and ETH leveraged positions were forcibly closed. Some may attribute today's rally to the news that Mt. Gox in Mentougou has postponed its repayment deadline to October 2025, but this news was announced last Friday.

· Although there are many factors that can explain today's trend, if we look back at the historical price trend, now is a very interesting time point. We are in mid-October, just three weeks away from the US presidential election day.

· Reviewing 2016, BTC traded in a very narrow range for over 3 months. It was not until three weeks before the US presidential election day that BTC started to rise from $600 and doubled in price in the first week of January.

· Similarly, in 2020, BTC was stuck in a dull range for half a year, until it started to rise from $11,000 three weeks before the election, and reached a high of $42,000 in January.

· So far, Uptober has been quite disappointing, with BTC only up 1.2%, while the average gain is 21%. After months of range trading, will history repeat itself? Today's rally has undoubtedly brought a glimmer of hope to the market, just as the optimistic sentiment of Uptober is gradually fading.

With the spot price being pushed up, the market is turning its attention to the profit targets for the fourth quarter.