Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The major market correction in early October has caused some investors to be deeply concerned, worrying that October, which has historically maintained an upward trend, may "be different" this time. However, history seems to have once again proven that "this time is also the same".
After soaring to a peak of $66,000 at the end of September, BTC did not stop there, but experienced a dramatic pullback, plunging to a depth of $59,000. But it is precisely this volatility that has given birth to an even more surging rebound storm! Starting from October 11, the market situation changed abruptly, with a fierce 3.67% increase in a single day, announcing the return of the upward trend. The price returned to the $63,000 high with unstoppable momentum, and then surged further to $66,500.
At the same time, Ethereum also broke free from its shackles, surging from $2,300 to $2,650, with a single-day increase of over 6.52%, the largest single-day increase since August.
In the market rally ignited by passion and hope, many sectors such as public chain SUI, SEI, APT, stablecoin ENA, AI ARKM, WLD, and meme coins have all experienced significant increases.
In terms of contract data, short positions suffered heavy losses. 24-hour network-wide liquidations reached $246 million, with $210 million in short liquidations. BTC's open interest data also soared to over $37 billion.
The altcoin market is in a state of chaos, has the second half of the bull market really begun?
BTC Spot ETF Sees Massive Single-Day Net Inflows
Since early October, although there have been some net outflows, they have been largely balanced by net inflows. Starting from October 8, there were 3 consecutive days of net outflows, with a total net outflow of nearly $180 million.
On October 11, the data saw a major reversal, with the Bitcoin spot ETF seeing a single-day net inflow of $253.54 million, a new high for October. After the large influx of off-exchange capital, BTC prices also saw a sharp rise on the same day.
Off-exchange capital confidence remains relatively firm.
The Fed Will Continue to Cut Interest Rates, Market Expectations Stabilize
This week, the US released September CPI and PPI, the two major inflation data. Overall CPI and core CPI year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates both exceeded expectations, but the year-on-year CPI growth rate of 2.4% still hit the lowest level since February 2021. PPI remained flat month-on-month, indicating that inflation is further cooling.
Goldman Sachs' economists analyzed that although the September CPI and PPI inflation data were mixed, the final readings were still close to expectations, indicating that US inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target, and the Fed is nearing its inflation target.
After the release of the two major inflation data this week, traders are almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in its November and December meetings.
US Presidential Election
Historically, the crypto market has often seen an upward trend around the time of the US presidential election results. On November 5, the results of the US presidential election will be announced, with only 20 days left.
In addition, Bloomberg reported that even Harris, a presidential candidate who has not had much close connection with the crypto market, is also working hard for votes.
On Monday, Harris proposed a new plan to provide loans to black entrepreneurs and others facing financing barriers. According to Harris' campaign platform to attract black male voters, the plan will provide 1 million loans, with up to $20,000 in forgiveness. Harris also promised to support a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, providing more investment certainty for the 20% of black Americans who own or have owned digital assets.
The DeFi lending project World Liberty Financial of the Trump family has also been active recently, introducing several experienced executives in addition to planning to publicly offer the WLFI token.
Data from Polymarket shows that as of now, Trump's winning probability is significantly higher than Harris'.
The market currently tends to believe that Trump's election as president will be positive for the crypto market, but given that both US presidential candidates have expressed crypto-friendly rhetoric and views, the negative impact would be minimal regardless of who takes office.
During the bull market from 2016 to 2020, the Republican Trump was in power, while from 2020 to 2024 it will be the Democratic Biden. The BTC-led crypto market has seen strong bull markets during their respective terms.
Looking at the market performance over the past two cycles, whether a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate takes office, it has not affected the upward trend of the crypto market.
After the election results are officially announced, some capital that has chosen to wait and see may abandon its hesitant style and boldly bet on the crypto market.
Future Market Trend
Coinbase Analyst: Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Crypto Performance Shifting from Monetary Policy to US Election Results
Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han stated that although Bitcoin's price performance has been sluggish this week, "market sentiment has remained essentially unchanged, with the past week's perpetual contract funding rates and open interest remaining stable, indicating this." Coinbase analysts pointed out that the macroeconomic factors affecting crypto performance are shifting from monetary policy to the US election results, although the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for rate cuts remain largely stable.
They also mentioned that China's fiscal policy briefing this Saturday may indirectly affect the crypto market, especially during the time when many markets will be closed. The crypto market may be used to express proxy views on the scale and strength of any fiscal policy announcements.
Bitfinex: BTC Short-Term Holder's Realized Price a Key Resistance
The latest Bitfinex Alpha analysis report emphasizes that the short-term holder's realized price (around $63,000) has become a key resistance level. Breaking through this level may trigger further upside, while failure may lead to a retest of the $59,000 or even $55,000 support levels.
Bitfinex Alpha believes the market is still in a passive state, and the future trend will depend on whether Bitcoin can break through the short-term holder's realized price. It suggests that traders should be wary of potential corrections, while also preparing for the possibility of a strong rebound.
