Bitcoin exceeds 92 million won… Expectations for ‘Santa Rally’ as ‘Uptober’ Realizes

The price of BTC has surpassed 92 million won, raising expectations for a 'virtual asset bull market'. This is because macroeconomic factors such as the benchmark interest rate, the US presidential election, and geopolitical factors have collectively driven up the price of virtual assets. There are forecasts that the upward trend will continue from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

At 9 am on the 17th, BTC was traded at 91,999,000 won on Upbit, up 11% from the previous day. The day before, it had surpassed 92 million won for the first time in about two months. During the same period, the price of Ethereum (ETH) rose about 12% to 3,586,000 won, and Ripple (XRP) rose 5% to 744.9 won.





The reason for the sharp rise in virtual asset prices is that various factors, including geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, as well as the US presidential election, have collectively acted. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points last month, the first rate cut since March 2020. When the benchmark interest rate is lowered, the demand for virtual assets, which are risky assets, increases, leading to a rise in prices. Lee Seung-hwa, head of the Dispread Research Team, explained, "The macroeconomic environment is currently stable, centered on the US, and the virtual asset market is also within its influence."

The rise in the approval rating of former US President Donald Trump, who is friendly to virtual assets, also drove up the price of virtual assets. According to Polymarket the previous day, the probability of former President Trump's election has risen to 56.9%, widening the gap with Vice President Kamala Harris (42.6%). JP Morgan said, "Various factors will promote the growth of the virtual asset market," and "Especially if former President Trump is elected, it is expected to have a positive impact on the BTC price in terms of regulation."



Some are seeing growing expectations for the 'Uptober' that has been suppressed so far. Uptober is a term that combines 'October' and 'up', meaning the virtual asset bullish season that comes every October. Kim Min-seung, head of the Cobit Research Center, said, "Uptober started in September, but expectations were suppressed as the situation in the Middle East became unstable," and "Various factors such as China's economic stimulus measures, BlackRock's positive comments on virtual assets, and the possibility of Trump's election have influenced the upward trend." Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently said in his third-quarter earnings announcement that "(in the US) the market will expand as the use of virtual assets increases, regardless of who becomes president," and that "BTC is an asset in itself."

There are also forecasts that the upward trend will continue until early next year. There is also attention on whether the 'Santa Rally', in which investment sentiment rises around Christmas, will materialize. Kim, the center head, said, "Since 2012, BTC's halving and the US presidential election have coincided every four years, and the price has risen in the fourth quarter and then surged the following year," and "The market has learned this, so unless there is a major change, the bullish market will continue." BTC price, which was 61.31 million won in December last year, surpassed 100 million won three months later.