VanEck: If L2 continues to "suck Ethereum", it will significantly hit the target price of ETH and lose the opportunity to exceed 10,000.

The Ethereum L2 "bleeding" phenomenon from Ethereum has been widely discussed and seems to have begun to affect Ethereum's future valuation. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at US asset management giant VanEck, has adjusted his ETH 2030 price forecast. He pointed out that if the distribution of transaction revenue between Ethereum and its L2 continues to be imbalanced, the 2030 target price for ETH will be significantly lowered by 67% from the original $22,000. The latest 2030 ETH target price is $7,334. Sigel said that as Ethereum's fundamentals have changed, he believes the Ethereum price forecast model should be updated. Sigel maintains the assumption of a 50:50 distribution of TVL between the Ethereum mainnet and L2s. In addition, the MEV estimate, which the model predicts will account for 0.10% of TVL per year, also remains unchanged, as these two assumptions are consistent with the current situation. However, the model has made a major adjustment to the distribution of transaction revenue. The original model assumed a 90:10 distribution of transaction revenue between Ethereum and L2 (i.e., Ethereum extracts 90% of the value from L2's blob fees, verification fees, and other fees). However, data from the past four months shows that this distribution is actually 10:90, with L2 capturing the majority of the transaction revenue. Regarding this change, Sigel pointed out: This means that L2 is extracting more value from Ethereum. If all other conditions remain unchanged and the distribution of transaction revenue remains at 10:90, the price target for ETH will decrease by two-thirds. Therefore, the latest 2030 target price for ETH has been adjusted down from $22,281 to $7,334. With the introduction of Blobs (EIP-4844) in the Dencun upgrade in mid-March, Ethereum L2's fees have dropped significantly, driving a surge in L2 transaction volume and user numbers, but this has led to a decrease in network activity on the Ethereum L1, causing a sharp drop in Gas fees and revenue, and posing a challenge to the deflationary narrative of ETH. Ultra Sound Money data shows that over the past 30 days, Ethereum has only burned 566,000 ETH, less than the 958,000 ETH issued, resulting in ETH supply inflation of 0.325% over the past 30 days. From April to the present, the ETH supply has increased by 318,000. Although Sigel's forecast shows that Ethereum's expected price will drop significantly, this reflects the current situation, and it is expected that the Ethereum community will adjust the ETH roadmap to reverse the trend of declining profitability. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also acknowledged in his latest article that if Ethereum itself is not further expanded, it may lead to a decline in the value of ETH, which would affect the long-term security of the network.