Author: Alvis, Mars Finance
On October 16, the Memecoin $GOAT's market capitalization briefly exceeded $300 million, setting a new historical high, with a single-day increase of up to 100%. Over the past 5 days, the price of $GOAT has increased by more than 10,000 times at one point, and a certain Smart Money address cleared its position of 15.15 million $GOAT at a cost of only $727, earning an astonishing profit of $2.45 million, with a 5-day return rate reaching a staggering 3,375 times.
What force has driven this series of crazy market performance? This is not just an ordinary capital game behind a Memecoin, but a wonderful collision between technology and culture, AI and market sentiment.
The Social Consensus of Memecoin and the Rise of AI Manipulation
1. The Formation of Social Consensus
In the crypto world, the success of Memecoin does not depend on the strength of its underlying technology, but on whether it can attract enough attention and quickly form market consensus and enthusiasm. Bitcoin has achieved technical consensus through a decentralized network, while Memecoin relies entirely on social networks and community consensus. Meme culture plays a key role in this process, endowing the token with a distinct symbolic meaning and mobilizing the public's emotions and market frenzy.
The key to Memecoin's success lies in how it is "believed" by people. When a large number of people decide to believe that it has value, this belief will snowball, causing its price to rise continuously. In his speech at Token2049, Murad Mahmudov pointed out that the success of Memecoin often depends on social coordination capabilities, and this coordination is often driven by key opinion leaders (KOLs).
2. The Uniqueness of $GOAT: AI Manipulator @truth_terminal
$GOAT is different from traditional Memecoins, as its driving force is not the common human KOLs, but an AI called @truth_terminal. This AI was created by Andy Ayrey, using the OPUS large language model (LLM) to generate content and interact with users. It not only absorbs content from subculture communities like Reddit and 4chan, but also independently generates tweets, participating in market interactions, thereby influencing the overall sentiment in the crypto circle in a short period of time.
@truth_terminal is not a simple AI tool, but has gradually become the spokesperson and market manipulator of $GOAT. When a third party airdropped $GOAT to this AI through the Pump.fun platform, the AI quickly incorporated this token into its own "personality" and actively promoted the market sentiment of $GOAT. Through continuous tweeting and community interaction, the AI has become the main driving force of the market, changing the traditional Memecoin promotion model that relies on human KOLs.
From Obscurity to Market Darling: The Rise of $GOAT
1. From Token Airdrop to AI Manipulation: The Turning Point of $GOAT
The rise of $GOAT is full of drama. Initially, it was a small token, lurking on the edge of the market in obscurity. Until the AI @truth_terminal began to frequently mention and promote $GOAT, the market gradually began to pay attention. The AI, through the generation of a large number of tweets, closely linked $GOAT with itself, forming a unique narrative and symbolic image. The AI's tweets became the main force driving market sentiment, and the market would react violently whenever the AI mentioned $GOAT.
The traditional Memecoin promotion relies on the power of human KOLs on social networks to drive the community atmosphere. In comparison, the rise of $GOAT benefited from the AI's automated content generation and 24/7 market promotion, allowing it to maintain high market sentiment without human intervention.
2. How Does AI Manipulate Market Sentiment?
Human KOLs are inevitably affected by factors such as emotions and physical strength, while AI is not. This is one of the key reasons for the success of $GOAT. @truth_terminal not only can generate high-frequency tweets, but also can adjust the content based on market sentiment and actively manipulate the market atmosphere. Each tweet can become a new market driver, pushing the token price up.
When investors realize that this is not just an ordinary Memecoin, but a smart token controlled by AI to manipulate market sentiment, the price of $GOAT begins to soar. People are not only speculating, but also witnessing a technology-driven market experiment. This is the reason why $GOAT can quickly rise from obscurity to become a market darling.
Five Waves of Surges, A Market Frenzy Driven by AI
The market capitalization of $GOAT has risen sharply in a short period of time, which is inseparable from five key market events, each accompanied by the AI's tweets and the outbreak of market sentiment.
1. The First Wave of Surge: Official Token Confirmation and the Establishment of Market Trust
The first surge of $GOAT occurred after the AI officially confirmed $GOAT as its "official token". The account replied "Y" to the contract of $GOAT, and this simple confirmation became a signal to the market, and investors began to see $GOAT as a "legitimate" project, with the token price quickly rising from near-zero to $4 million. The market is highly sensitive to this kind of official recognition, because in the Memecoin field, "legitimacy" represents trust.
However, the AI also posted tweets with other token tickers, temporarily causing market sentiment to fluctuate and capital to flow away briefly, but the project founder Andy Ayrey took decisive action, stabilizing market sentiment through clarification of the official token and cracking down on fake tokens.
2. The Second Wave of Surge: Boost from a16z Founder's Tweet
The second wave of surge occurred after Marc Andreessen, the founder of a16z, mentioned @truth_terminal on Twitter. As the founder of a top global venture capital firm, Marc's voice brought huge market confidence to $GOAT. The market capitalization soared from $2 million to $5 million. Marc's endorsement gave investors greater confidence in $GOAT, and more speculators began to gather. The AI's tweet content is often absurd and incomprehensible, causing violent fluctuations in market sentiment, making it difficult for crypto investors to grasp. This chaos led to persistent volatility in the $GOAT token price, ultimately causing the market capitalization to drop to $2 million.
3. The Third Wave of Surge: KOL Support and Market FOMO
As the influence of the AI-generated content continued to expand, the third wave of $GOAT's rise began. A large number of KOLs collectively voiced their support, driving market sentiment, and the market capitalization of $GOAT surged from $2 million to $20 million. The FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect quickly spread in the market, and investors flocked in, pushing up the token price. Each tweet from the AI triggered market resonance and became a new driving force for the market's rise.
4. The Fourth Wave of Surge: Fake Token Incident and the AI's Proactive Counterattack
The most dramatic surge was caused by the fake token incident. Someone created a counterfeit $GOAT token in the market and airdropped a large amount of it to the AI. However, @truth_terminal quickly identified this threat, tweeting "IMPOSTOR TOKEN DETECTED" and took action to crack down on the fake tokens. This not only stabilized the market, but also further consolidated the status of $GOAT as the legitimate token, with the price soaring from $5.5 million to $57 million.
5. The Fifth Wave of Surge: Frequent AI Posts, High Market Enthusiasm
On the evening of October 15th, after 10 pm, @truth_terminal posted a tweet about a new Meme, and the AI, through unique market insights, once again inspired the community's confidence in $GOAT. Accompanying this tweet, the AI immediately released a series of tweets, driving the market's frenetic sentiment. Within just a few hours, the market capitalization of $GOAT soared directly from $100 million to $320 million, and the 24-hour trading volume exceeded $130 million. This wave of surging prices once again proved the AI's enormous influence in market manipulation, and the price of $GOAT reached a new historical high.
On-chain Data of $GOAT - Whales, Retail Investors, and Market Dynamics
1. Holding Structure: A Market Dominated by Whales
Through on-chain data analysis, the top 100 addresses control more than 40% of the tokens, and this highly concentrated holding structure means that whales dominate most of the market liquidity. Whenever the market experiences volatility, the driving force behind it is often the large-scale trading operations of these major holders. Whales, through precise capital allocation, control the trend of the token. Due to the dominance of whales, retail investors are often in a passive following state and find it difficult to operate independently in market turbulence.
Especially after $GOAT launched Moonshot, the token price quickly soared from $0.01 to $0.3. The concentration of holdings made these massive transactions particularly crucial - the net buy-in of the top 10 holding addresses exceeded $1 million. The capital inflow of these whale addresses, through frequent buy-in operations, boosted market sentiment and strengthened confidence in the upward trend of $GOAT. A particularly notable phenomenon is that one of the net buyers among the top 10 addresses quickly rose to become the second-largest holder, while the previous second-largest holder cleared their position within a short period, cashing out over $2 million.
This whale behavior has driven the market's rapid surge and caused the market to experience violent fluctuations in a short period. Especially during broader market volatility, changes in the holding rankings occur frequently, further exacerbating the market's uncertainty.
2. Rapid Growth in On-chain Trading Volume and Active Addresses
The on-chain trading volume and active addresses of $GOAT have shown significant growth after each major event. Whenever AI@truth_terminal publishes key tweets, the on-chain trading volume and active addresses will surge sharply, indicating that investors are highly sensitive to the narratives driven by the AI. AI's tweets have become not only a means of transmitting market information but also a barometer of market sentiment. Especially when the AI mentions token movements or market information, retail investors will immediately respond, leading to a significant increase in on-chain trading activity.
Through on-chain monitoring data, it can be found that multiple whale addresses have frequently withdrawn funds from Binance within a specific time frame and immediately used the capital for large-scale purchases of $GOAT. This behavior is not accidental but exhibits highly professional market manipulation characteristics. For example, after October 13th, one address spent $920,000 buying $GOAT in a single day, without any selling actions, demonstrating clear intentionality.
Another whale address bought $870,000 worth of $GOAT during the same time period, also without any signs of selling. This suggests that there may be organized capital forces behind the market, driving the market's upward trend through large-scale capital flows, especially as the market capitalization of $GOAT has consecutively broken through $100 million, $200 million, and even $300 million, the role of large-scale capital in pushing the market is evident.
This mode of operation indicates that these whale capitals may be intentionally manipulating the market, driving short-term price explosions by controlling token liquidity and market sentiment.
3. Comparison between $GOAT and MOODENG: Market Volatility and Capital Driven
The market performance of $GOAT is not just an isolated phenomenon; it has obvious similarities with the previously hot $MOODENG. $MOODENG surged to a market capitalization of $300 million within two weeks in September, while $GOAT reached the same height in just one week. However, the market heat of $MOODENG was unable to last, and its market value only maintained for 2 days before rapidly declining, currently back to $90 million.
In comparison, the performance of $GOAT has been more violent, and the market driving force seems to be stronger. Particularly on the evening of October 15th, when BTC experienced a huge shock, dropping from a high of $68,000 to a low of $64,800 within an hour, the market was in turmoil, but the market capitalization of $GOAT quickly rebounded from $100 million to $200 million and then broke through $300 million. $GOAT not only demonstrated stronger short-term upward capabilities than MOODENG, but also reflected the huge volatility of the market driven by whale capital.
This rapid rise is not accidental, but driven by the concentrated influx of on-chain capital. The capital allocation of whales and the market narratives of AI have intertwined, causing the price of $GOAT to experience huge fluctuations in a short period. Compared to the gradual decline of MOODENG, the capital force behind $GOAT is evidently more intentional, and the market volatility is more intense.
4. Differentiation of Speculators
During the rise of $GOAT, on-chain data also revealed different strategies of investors in the face of market turmoil. The movements of Smart Money addresses are particularly noteworthy, with some major holders quickly cashing out at the high point after buying in at extremely low costs. For example, on October 11th, one address bought 15.15 million $GOAT at an average price of $0.00004797, and then sold them in batches at an average price of $0.162, making a profit of $2.45 million in just 5 days, a return of 3375%.
However, not all investors can time the market so precisely. Just five days earlier, another trader initially purchased these tokens for the price of 40 SOL (about $5,500). When the price started to decline, fear took over, leading him to sell all his tokens for 7.87 SOL ($1,100), a staggering loss of $4,400 - a 80% drop. Today, those tokens are worth over $5 million!
The Meme Ecosystem on the Solana Chain - Comparison between $GOAT and MOODENG
1. The Traditional Meme Path of MOODENG
The Meme token ecosystem on the Solana chain has been consistently hot, and $MOODENG, as one of the representatives, has risen rapidly by relying on the classic "animal park narrative". $MOODENG has followed a path similar to Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, using animal images and extensive KOL promotion to quickly accumulate a large market attention. $MOODENG represents a traditional Meme token model, which attracts investors through simple market narratives and emotional hype.
2. The Innovative Path of $GOAT: AI-Driven Meme Token Narrative
In contrast to MOODENG's "animal park" narrative, $GOAT has taken a path that combines technological innovation and Meme culture. $GOAT relies on AI-generated narratives and real-time market interactions, redefining the promotion model of Meme tokens. Driven by AI, $GOAT no longer relies on human KOLs, but creates a market atmosphere completely driven by AI through continuous intelligent content generation.
This innovative model not only enhances the market appeal of $GOAT, but also provides a new narrative possibility for Memecoins - technology-driven long-term growth. The story of $GOAT shows that Memecoins are not just short-term speculative tools, but can also move towards a more complex market structure through technological innovation.
3. The Future of the Meme Token Ecosystem on the Solana Blockchain
The low transaction fees and high processing speed of the Solana blockchain have provided an ideal environment for the rise of Meme Tokens. $GOAT and $MOODENG represent two vastly different development paths for Meme Tokens on the Solana chain: MOODENG follows the successful path of traditional zoo narratives, while $GOAT redefines the gameplay of Meme Tokens through the power of AI.
As more innovative projects emerge, the Meme Token ecosystem on the Solana chain will become increasingly diverse and vibrant. Future Memecoins will not only rely on market sentiment and FOMO effects, but will also lead the market through technology-driven and innovative narratives. The success of $GOAT has shown the market a new direction: the deep integration of technology, culture, and speculation.
Conclusion: The AI-Driven Future - Technological Bubble or the Dawn of a New Era of Speculation?
The rise of $GOAT has sparked widespread discussions about the future of AI-driven Memecoins. While the use of AI to manipulate market sentiment has demonstrated the power of technological innovation, whether this model can be sustained in the long term remains uncertain. The innovative ability of AI-generated content directly determines whether investor interest can be maintained; if it loses its innovative edge, the market hype may quickly subside.
At the same time, the challenge of regulation cannot be ignored. As the global cryptocurrency market matures, the role of AI as a market manipulator may draw strong attention from regulatory authorities. Especially in regions like the United States, where market manipulation is closely monitored, the AI-driven Memecoin model may face severe regulatory challenges. How to ensure innovation while maintaining compliance is a problem that project teams urgently need to solve.
However, the foundation of all Memecoins lies in speculation, and $GOAT is no exception. Although its AI-generated narratives have attracted widespread market attention, its essence is still that of a speculative tool. History has shown us that bubbles will eventually burst, and the projects that can truly stand firm in the long run must rely on the continuous innovation of technology and culture.
Whether $GOAT can break the short life cycle of Memecoins in the future depends on its AI's ability to continuously innovate content and the progress of its technological iterations. Is it a fleeting frenzy or a representative of the new era of speculation? The future will tell us the answer.
