I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
l Apple Drops Nearly 1% Pre-Market
The market is awaiting the US inflation data release tomorrow evening, and the futures of the three major US stock indices are fluctuating slightly. Before the market open, Apple stock dropped nearly 1% due to the iPhone 16 release. The latest survey by the New York Federal Reserve shows that consumer inflation expectations for the next three years have risen, and expectations for the labor market are mixed.
l Wall Street Bear Wilson: If the Fed Cuts Rates Aggressively, Yen Carry Trade Unwinding May Return
Michael Wilson, the largest short seller on Wall Street, pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by more than 25 basis points, it may cause the yen to appreciate, making US dollar assets less attractive, which could lead to a repeat of the global stock market crash seen in early August, putting pressure on US tech stocks.
（2）Web3 Domain:
l Bitcoin Spot ETF Ends 8-Day Consecutive Net Outflow, On-Chain Data Shows Risks Not Fully Cleared
From August 27 to September 7, Bitcoin continued to decline, falling below $60,000, triggering market panic. According to Coingecko data, Bitcoin fell from around $64,265 on August 26 to $53,923 on September 7, during which the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow for 8 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net outflow of about $1.2 billion, and the total net assets of the ETF shrank by about $8.8 billion, a rare occurrence since the launch of the US Bitcoin spot ETF. On the evening of September 9, Bitcoin stopped falling and rebounded, and at the same time, Sosovalue data showed that the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF turned positive, indicating that market sentiment has improved. However, Technical analysis on TradingView shows that the market sell signals are still strong.
According to Glassnode data, the 7-day moving average SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) of Bitcoin has fallen below 1.0, which means that sellers on the blockchain are still profitable in their transactions, but it should be noted that historically, SOPR often falls below 1.0 before market consolidation occurs. The current decline is similar to the bear market phases in 2018 and 2019, with SOPR remaining below 1.0 for an extended period, and the market may see a reversal.
Figure 1, Glassnode Forecast
Source: Glassnode, Dot Labs
2. Hot Events
l SEC's Crypto Enforcement Fines to Reach $4.7 Billion in FY 2024, Up Over 30-Fold YoY
On September 10, according to a Cointelegraph report, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is showing a significant increase in enforcement efforts against the cryptocurrency industry in the 2024 fiscal year. According to a report released by Social Capital Markets, the total amount of fines imposed by the SEC on cryptocurrency companies and executives this fiscal year is expected to reach $4.7 billion, a staggering 3018% increase from the $150.3 million in the 2023 fiscal year.
Odaily Planet Daily news, on September 10, according to an official announcement, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet has announced its "Announcement of the 11th Round of Stock Acquisition Rights Exercise by Management", which will raise 299.7 million yen through the exercise of 540,000 stock options, and the shares are expected to be delivered starting September 18, and the funds received will be used to purchase Bitcoin.
3. Hot Narratives
Overall, although the daily active users, trading volume and trading amount of blockchain games all achieved month-on-month growth in August, the decline in the market capitalization of game tokens still highlights the challenges facing the crypto market, with token prices and market capitalization both showing a downward trend. Against the backdrop of market volatility, Soneium has become a hot topic of discussion. On August 23, the Sony Blockchain Solutions Labs, jointly initiated by Sony Group and Startale Labs, announced the launch of a new Layer 2 network based on Ethereum - Soneium. The network will adopt Optimism's OP Stack technology, spanning the gaming, entertainment and finance sectors, combining Web3 innovation with consumer applications.
In the week following the announcement, Soneium has made rapid progress, including launching the "Minato" testnet, kicking off the "Soneium Spark" program for developers, and partnering with Transak to provide global fiat on-ramp services. As industry giants like Sony continue to enter the blockchain space, more and more people are optimistic about bringing more users into the Web3 ecosystem.
4. Potential Catalysts
Odaily Planet Daily report: On Polymarket, the probability of Donald Trump winning the September 10 election debate is 27%, while the probability of Kamala Harris winning the September 10 election debate has decreased by 2% to 73%, and the current total betting pool is $182,600. The campaign website of US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has published a list of proposed policy positions for her future presidential administration, which does not mention anything related to cryptocurrencies. On the new issues page of her campaign website, some text mentions supporting the development of the artificial intelligence industry and emphasizes the importance of nurturing "other cutting-edge industries of the future". In addition, the Harris campaign website has compared Trump's 2025 policy agenda, repeatedly emphasizing the rationality of Harris' related policies.
II. Attention Value - Trending Projects
1. Social Media Hotspots
Ethereum is a decentralized, open-source blockchain platform with smart contract functionality. With the continuous development of Ethereum 2.0 and Layer2, it has become one of the most widely used blockchains. In July this year, the Ethereum spot ETF was officially approved for listing and trading. Although reduced revenue and whale exits have led to a large recent decline in $ETH, the market remains generally optimistic due to its low inflation rate and strong development capabilities.
Key Projects:
WELL3
WELL3 is a decentralized health platform launched by Yogapetz, which incentivizes user participation in health activities by converting health data into valuable rewards. The project adopts a "Wellness to Earn" (W2E) model, allowing users to earn $WELL rewards by participating in activities such as yoga and meditation. It provides a personalized AI assistant that can customize health guidance based on individual preferences and needs, and the assistant can deepen its understanding of the user through interaction to provide more effective health advice. In the future, the project will also be applied to devices like Apple Vision Pro.
Earlier this year, Yogapetz raised over $5 million from seed funding and NFT sales, with investors including Animoca Brands, Newman group and Soul Capital Partners. $WELL was launched in July this year, but due to technical issues, the airdrop could not be claimed on the first day, causing the secondary market price to plummet over 60%, though it has since recovered somewhat.
2. Smart Money Positioning
Smart Money Holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. MIGGLES(@MrMigglesOnBase /X)
Mister Miggles is a meme project on Base. Coinbase, through the release of cat videos and related Non-Fungible Tokens, as well as the launch of the "Onchain Summer" event, has encouraged on-chain creation, increasing the exposure and participation of the project. The project saw over 900% growth in the first three days after its launch in July, attracting significant market attention.
2. $WIF(@dogwifcoin /X)
$WIF is a Solana-based meme coin that was first listed in mid-December 2023. Riding on the popularity of another dog-themed meme coin, $Bonk, $WIF has successfully become the second meme token on Solana with a market cap exceeding $100 million.
Smart money inflow
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. LIT(@bunni_xyz /X)
The DeFi yield protocol Timeless launched its token $LIT (Liquidity Incentive Token) in January 2023 to incentivize users to provide liquidity on Uniswapv3. In 2023, Timeless established a new protocol Bunni to help liquidity providers earn yields more effectively, making Uniswap liquidity more easily integrated into other applications, thereby driving a flywheel effect for Timeless Finance.
2. CLOUD(@sanctumso /X)
Sanctum is a liquid staking protocol that introduces the concept of liquid staking tokens (LST) into the Solana ecosystem and has launched various innovative solutions such as multi-asset liquidity pools. Sanctum has opened up unique opportunities for the Solana DeFi user community, providing a highly flexible, multi-LST liquidity staking environment for users. The project launched its native governance token $CLOUD in July 2024.
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
1. Hot Sectors
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Sector Rotation
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
