Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The market is not as optimistic as many people think, but it is also not as pessimistic as some people think. No one could have foreseen that the crypto market's downward trend, which began in March of this year, would last a full six months. At one point, it fell to the point where some investors couldn't help but swear, cursing the heavens, the earth, and the exchanges. At one point, it fell to the point where a certain ancient OG predicted that they would have to prepare for an 18-month protracted war. At one point, it fell to the point where some whales posted on Twitter that they were giving up on the crypto circle and called on more people to go all-in on the A-shares.
Will there be an Altcoin season again? Whenever the market is skeptical, it is precisely the bottom of the market. History's answer is always the same: there will be.
History is also surprisingly similar. In 2023, the market also began to stagnate in the middle of the year, until it took off again starting in October of last year. This year is the same. Interestingly, some funds seem to be smart, as if they have smelled the scent, and have quickly positioned themselves in advance. As a result, by the end of September, the market had already seen a round of a major surge. After a brief correction in early October, the "October bull run" self-fulfilling prophecy was realized again, and the market has risen again from the short-term $52,000 level to $68,000, about $6,000 away from the all-time high. Even the much-maligned Altcoins have seen significant gains from the bottom, some even doubling or tripling.
After waiting for half a year, has the bull market arrived?
Continuous Large Inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs
The data on Bitcoin spot ETFs represents the real volume of purchasing funds outside the market. Unlike our personal trading, it represents the willingness of some people to pay a fee to have someone else buy BTC for them. Looking at the historical chart, when the net inflow is large, the buying pressure is strong, and Bitcoin prices tend to rise. When the net outflow is large, the price tends to fall.
Since the launch of the spot ETFs, the total net inflow has reached $20.66 billion. It is worth noting that from October 1st to date, there have been 6 days of net outflows, but 7 days of net inflows, and the net inflow amounts are not small. On October 14th, the net inflow exceeded $555 million, and on October 16th and 17th, the net inflows were both over $450 million. On October 15th, the net inflow exceeded $370 million.
Although in terms of the number of days, the net inflows and net outflows are roughly equal, the net outflow amounts are small, while the net inflow amounts are often several times the net outflow.
Even the unpopular Ethereum spot ETF has seen a rare single-day net inflow of $48.41 million since October.
The purchasing power of off-market funds remains quite strong.
Stablecoin Market Cap Nearing All-Time High
The change in the total stablecoin market cap represents the size of the capital inflow and outflow. Although the market has fluctuated up and down over the past few years, with capital flowing in and out, when we zoom out, it is difficult to be pessimistic.
The total stablecoin market cap reached a historical high of $186.3 billion in mid-2022, and then fell continuously, but overall maintained above $120 billion. Fast forward to October 2023, the capital inflow has been accelerating, and the current total stablecoin market cap has exceeded $172.3 billion, close to the historical high.
BTC Unrealized Net Profit/Loss Indicates Most Players Are Profitable
The Bitcoin unrealized net profit/loss metric is mainly used to measure the profitability/loss of Bitcoin on-chain players. We can see that the color of the line from top to bottom is red, orange, light yellow, gray-white, and light blue. The bottom blue represents the majority of people taking losses, while the top red represents the majority of players being profitable.
When the line chart is in the light blue area, it is often the bottom of the BTC price range, as those who have taken losses continue to exit and establish a bottom. When the line chart is in the yellow or red zone, it is often the top of the BTC price range, as a considerable number of profit-takers choose to take profits and exit, leading to the top of the cycle. This cycle repeats.
From the line chart, the market has now climbed back from the light-colored area to the yellow area. According to data disclosed by IntoTheBlock, 95% of BTC addresses are now in profit, and market sentiment has clearly warmed up.
Historically, this level often signals a strong bullish trend, but it may also represent potential overheating.
Long-Term BTC Holders Continuing to Accumulate
The long-term holder supply mainly shows the total BTC held by long-term holders. Here, long-term holders refer specifically to addresses that have held BTC for more than 155 days.
The chart shows that whenever BTC price reaches a top, the number of long-term holder addresses decreases. This is because smart money always chooses to take profits when the price is at its peak. After the decline, they start accumulating BTC again, and when the price rises to a high point, they sell again, repeating the cycle.
The chart shows that this group of long-term holders started buying again at the end of July this year, and the right side of the line chart appears quite steep. Clearly, these smart funds are optimistic about the future market outlook.
It is worth mentioning that according to CryptoQuant data, new whale addresses are hoarding BTC at an almost crazy pace. Founder Ki Young Ju said the BTC market has never seen such hoarding behavior. Some believe the new whales are mainly due to ETF inflows, but their recent hoarding behavior shows these new whale addresses have little to do with ETFs.
Total Open Interest in BTC Futures Reaches All-Time High
Today, according to Coinglass data, the total open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts has risen to over $39.7 billion, setting a new all-time high.
Futures data often represents the market's view on the future trend. It usually lags behind the spot BTC price performance, and when the market is extremely bullish on the short-term outlook, it is also easy to see a correction, washing out positions and leverage.
It is worth noting that over the past half year, the open interest in Bitcoin futures has remained at a relatively high level. This new all-time high data is the first time it has broken through the over $38 billion recorded at the beginning of the year. Market bullish sentiment has clearly risen.
Summary
On the macro side, the Fed will cut interest rates further in November and December, and some global liquidity will continue to flow into risk assets, providing more liquidity to the crypto market.
Meanwhile, a series of on-chain indicators suggest the market is continuously warming up, with capital inflows.
"The market is born in despair, grows in doubt, matures in anticipation, and is destroyed in hope."
Perhaps, after nearly half a year of waiting, a new round of crypto market bull run is about to be unleashed.
