Odaily星球日报讯 Monad 增长负责人 Intern 在 X 平台发文表示，Polymarket 上特朗普胜率曲线与比特币价格走势呈高度正相关性。

观点：预测市场特朗普大选胜率与比特币价格走势呈高度相关

Odaily Odaily News: Monad Growth Director Intern posted on the X platform that the Trump victory rate curve on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with the price trend of Bitcoin.

Opinion: Prediction market shows Trump's election victory rate is highly correlated with Bitcoin price trend

According to a report in <The Wall Street Journal>, over the past two weeks, the probability of Trump winning the November election has risen sharply on the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket. As of Thursday, investors on the platform believe Trump has a 62% chance of winning, while Harris has a 38% chance. However, in early October, the two candidates were still evenly matched.

This surge may be an illusion created by four Polymarket accounts that have collectively invested around $30 million in cryptocurrency to bet on Trump's victory. After review, the CEO of <Arkham> Intelligence, Miguel Morel, stated that he has ample reason to believe these 4 accounts belong to the same entity.

The large bet on Trump may not be malicious. Some observers believe these bets are made by a big gambler who is confident that Trump will win and hopes to make a huge return. However, others believe these bets are an influence campaign aimed at boosting the former president's presence on social media.

A source familiar with the matter said that Polymarket is investigating the activity in its presidential election market with the help of external experts.

<CHR> Ventures partner Cochran stated that $30 million is enough to change the odds on Polymarket, and for someone trying to influence the election with ample resources, this is not a large expense, but rather the most effective political advertisement they can buy so far.

According to Mars Finance, Trump's probability of winning on Polymarket is still maintained at 60%.

WSJ published an article saying that Trump's lead on Polymarket may be a "false image", suggesting that the team spent 30 million votes to promote Trump

According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 this month has risen to 64%, up from 45% a week ago.
'AR' must be translated into 'AR'.

Polymarket predicts that the probability of Bitcoin hitting $70,000 this month has risen to 64%

Odaily Planet Daily Report: With less than three weeks to go until the US presidential election, the chances of former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election are steadily rising, largely due to the influence of Polymarket user "Fredi9999", a major bettor who holds over $20 million in bets supporting Trump. The behavior of top Polymarket bettors has raised concerns about the accuracy and potential manipulation of decentralized prediction markets. "Fredi9999" has had a significant impact on the price of the Trump prediction market, and the trading pattern shows that "Fredi9999" can control the top four Trump whales on Polymarket. These accounts all received large deposits from <Kraken> and immediately began betting on Trump. However, Elon Musk believes that decentralized prediction markets may be more accurate in predicting election results than traditional opinion polls. (Cointelegraph)