Odaily星球日报讯 英国《金融时报》团队近期更新了对美联储利率前景的预测，预测若哈里斯胜选，美联储明年或迅速降息。分析称，继 9 月降息 50 个基点后，美联储或将在 2024 年以 25 个基点的步伐再降息两次。美联储今年年底前将共计将利率下调 100 个基点，将基金利率降至 4.25-4.5%。这与美联储 9 月份的经济预测摘要一致。 如果哈里斯在美国总统大选中获胜，美联储将在 2025 年上半年再降息 3 次，每次降息 25 个基点，将政策利率降至 3.5-3.75%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 英国《金融时报》团队近期更新了对美联储利率前景的预测，预测若哈里斯胜选，美联储明年或迅速降息。分析称，继 9 月降息 50 个基点后，美联储或将在 2024 年以 25 个基点的步伐再降息两次。美联储今年年底前将共计将利率下调 100 个基点，将基金利率降至 4.25-4.5%。这与美联储 9 月份的经济预测摘要一致。如果哈里斯在美国总统大选中获胜，美联储将在 2025 年上半年再降息 3 次，每次降息 25 个基点，将政策利率降至 3.5-3.75%。（金十）

英国金融时报：若哈里斯胜选，美联储明年或迅速降息

The Financial Times team has recently updated its forecast on the outlook for US Federal Reserve interest rates, predicting that if Harris wins the election, the Federal Reserve may cut rates rapidly next year. The analysis suggests that after a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice more by 25 basis points in 2024. The Federal Reserve will cut a total of 100 basis points in interest rates by the end of this year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%. This is consistent with the Federal Reserve's economic forecast summary in September. If Harris wins the US presidential election, the Federal Reserve will cut rates 3 more times by 25 basis points in the first half of 2025, lowering the policy rate to 3.5-3.75%. (Jinshi)

The Financial Times team has recently updated its forecast on the outlook for US Federal Reserve interest rates, predicting that if Harris wins, the Fed may cut rates rapidly next year. The analysis suggests that after a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, the Fed may cut rates twice more by 25 basis points in 2024. The Fed will cut rates by a total of 100 basis points by the end of this year, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25-4.5%. This is consistent with the Fed's September economic forecast summary. If Harris wins the US presidential election, the Fed will cut rates 3 more times by 25 basis points in the first half of 2025, lowering the policy rate to 3.5-3.75%. (Gold Ten)

Financial Times: If Harris wins the election, the Fed may quickly cut interest rates next year

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

The Mars Finance news reported that on October 22, <2024 FOMC voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Daly> stated that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market.

Daly said at the <Wall Street Journal TechLive conference> held in Laguna Beach, California on Monday that "so far, I have not seen any information indicating that we will not continue to lower interest rates. For an economy that has already embarked on a 2% inflation rate path, this is a very tight interest rate, and I do not want to see the labor market deteriorate further."

She added that the goal is to achieve a "soft landing", that is, to reduce the inflation rate to 2% and maintain a healthy labor market, with wage levels keeping up with price increases. She said that as the inflation rate declines, the Federal Reserve needs to continue to lower the policy interest rate, otherwise it may make the policy overly tight and harm the labor market.

Fed's Daly: Expect the Fed to continue cutting interest rates to prevent further weakening of the labor market

Odaily <SOL> Planet Daily Report: According to ING, recent hawkish repricing of Fed rate expectations has led some FOMC members to express doubts about further rate cuts by the end of the year. ING Group analyst Francesco Pesole said in a report that the dollar may continue to appreciate ahead of the highly competitive U.S. presidential election next month. Pesole said the dollar may "lose some momentum in the middle of the week," but overall, the dollar will rise for most of the time before the election. In addition, the reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts have also boosted the dollar. (Gold Ten)

ING: Fed hawks re-priced, some FOMC members doubt continuous rate cuts before the end of the year

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in September unexpectedly cut interest rates by around 50bp. Many self-media, experts, and financial advisors jumped out to be bullish on bonds and urged everyone to rush into US Treasuries. At that time, they presented a flawless financial common sense: when interest rates fall, bond yields will decline, and bond prices will rise. <Liu Jie> has repeatedly reminded in internal references and articles to pay attention to the occurrence of "counterintuitive" situations, but he still witnessed many unfortunate cases. On September 18, when the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury was 3705bp; more than a month later today, it has soared to 42...