Standard Chartered Bank analyst: Bitcoin may reach over $73,000 on U.S. election day

According to The Block report, Geoff Kendrick, the head of global digital assets research at Standard Chartered, believes that the price of BTC could exceed $73,000, approaching its all-time high, on the day of the US presidential election on November 5, based on his analysis of BTC derivatives and trading volume indicators. Kendrick stated in an email on Thursday: "We use daily BTC trading volume levels and popular option strike levels to estimate post-election price action. Our base case is for BTC to be around $73,000 on election day." He also pointed out that if Donald Trump wins, the options parity suggests a potential price increase of around 4% after the election results are announced, and a total increase of around 10% in the following days. The analyst emphasized that the dynamics of the options market provide insights into the potential price movements in the initial post-election period, as the open interest in BTC call options with a strike price of $80,000 expiring on December 27 is large, suggesting a potential rapid move towards that price level. A Republican sweep could drive up the price Kendrick said, "If the Republicans sweep Congress (i.e., the Republicans win both the Senate and the House), our year-end BTC target could rise to $125,000," while if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, BTC may initially decline, but is expected to reach around $75,000 by the end of 2024. Kendrick noted that recent trading activity is a positive indicator for the BTC price. He wrote: "BTC prices have risen in recent weeks, in line with other trades popular among Trump supporters. According to RealClearPolitics, Trump's betting odds are currently 59%, and specific markets like Polymarket show a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins." Kendrick added that the drop in BTC to a local low of $65,200 on Wednesday may be the last correction before the US presidential election.