Odaily星球日报讯 德意志银行称，尽管近期民调倾向于特朗普胜选，但市场定价仍保持谨慎。尽管市场上有关于“特朗普交易”的讨论，但市场对特朗普胜选的定价程度仍很谨慎。德意志银行通过美元在外汇市场以及对关税最敏感的一篮子标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司来说明这一点。他们认为，欧元兑美元汇率从 1.12 降至 1.09 主要是由于美国强劲的就业数据公布后对美联储预期的重新定价。他们还指出，对关税敏感的一篮子标准普尔 500 指数成分股公司股价一直呈横盘走势，只是最近才开始表现不佳，这与近期的民意调查趋势相符。德意志银行写道：“市场已开始对特朗普胜选概率增加进行定价，但这种情况对市场定价的影响程度仍然相当小。”（金十数据 APP）

德意志银行：特朗普胜选预期微增，但市场定价仍然谨慎

Odaily Odaily News: Deutsche Bank said that despite recent polls leaning towards Trump&#39;s victory, market pricing remains cautious. Despite discussions about the &quot;Trump trade&quot; in the market, the market is still cautious about the degree to which Trump&#39;s victory is priced. Deutsche Bank illustrates this through the US dollar in the foreign exchange market and the basket of S&amp;P 500 companies that are most sensitive to tariffs. They believe that the decline in the euro against the US dollar from 1.12 to 1.09 is mainly due to the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations after the release of strong US employment data. They also pointed out that the share prices of the basket of S&amp;P 500 companies that are sensitive to tariffs have been moving sideways and have only recently begun to perform poorly, which is consistent with recent poll trends. &quot;The market has begun to price in an increased probability of Trump&#39;s victory, but the extent to which this situation affects market pricing is still quite small,&quot; Deutsche Bank wrote. (Jinshi Data APP)

Deutsche Bank: Expectations of Trump's victory have slightly increased, but market pricing remains cautious

Odaily Planet Daily Report: With less than two weeks to go until the US election, Barclays Bank said that the European stock market has already reflected the possibility of Trump's victory. The company said that since the beginning of this year, a basket of European exporters, namely those companies most susceptible to the impact of tariffs, have underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%. (Golden Ten)

Barclays: European stocks have priced in a Trump victory

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to 4E monitoring, on Thursday, only the Dow Jones index among the three major US stock indexes fell. Weighed down by IBM and Honeywell's financial reports, the Dow Jones index fell 0.33%, extending its decline for four consecutive days; the S&P 500 index closed up 0.21%, ending its three-day losing streak; Tesla surged nearly 22%, supporting the Nasdaq and the consumer discretionary sector to lead the gains, with the Nasdaq reaching an intraday high of over 0.8%. Cryptocurrencies mostly rose, with Bitcoin rebounding and breaking through $68,000 as of the time of writing, up 0.9%, while Ethereum reported $2,513, down 1.5%. In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index fell about 0.4% on Thursday, ending its three-day winning streak and also retreating from a new high in nearly three months; as US bond yields fell along with the US dollar, gold prices surged significantly. Spot gold jumped $20.52, up 0.76%, approaching historical highs again; market concerns about a slowdown in the European economy negatively impacting oil demand, coupled with reports that the US and Israel will attempt to restart negotiations on the Gaza ceasefire, have put pressure on oil prices, with US oil and Brent oil initially rising over 2% but later turning to a decline of over 1%. Economic data released in October supports the market's bet on the Fed's regular 25-basis-point rate cut in November. Currently, the market is still focused on corporate earnings, with over 32% of S&P 500 index constituents having reported their third-quarter results, of which 76% have exceeded analysts' expectations. Despite the constant flow of earnings news, the US stock market as a whole remains directionless as the US election approaches.

4E: With the US election approaching, the US stock and crypto markets are generally lacking direction

Odaily Planet Daily Report: As Trump leads Harris in the prediction market, US bond yields and the US dollar have recently risen sharply. Investors are curbing their bets on loose monetary policy, as if Trump wins the election, he will implement pro-growth measures on the already relatively strong US economy. With the financial environment tightening relatively, Bit has seen its first weekly decline in three weeks. IG Australia market analyst said that stock sell-offs, a stronger US dollar, and rising yields all mean a tightening financial environment, which is not good for cryptocurrencies. Some may point out that the financial environment has been loose from the beginning, but the speed of tightening is more important. The co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity, said that if Trump wins, it may lead to higher US bond yields and ultimately have a negative impact on risk assets. However, the expected softening of the Trump administration's regulation of the crypto industry should still be a more important factor.