On October 28, this week is a busy week for economic data, with the PCE data, the October non-farm payroll report, and the third-quarter financial reports of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, which will determine the market direction at the beginning of November.
According to 4E monitoring, the three major US stock indexes performed differently last week, with Tesla's soaring stock price driving the Nasdaq to rise about 0.9%, marking its seventh consecutive week of gains and being just one step away from a new high. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Dow Jones fell 2.6% last week, both ending a six-week winning streak. The cryptocurrency market generally saw a significant decline last week, with Bitcoin reported at $67,668 as of the time of writing, down 2.18% in 7 days, and Ethereum reported at $2,490, down nearly 10% in 7 days.
In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index rose back to a three-month high on Friday, up 0.8% last week and rising for the fourth consecutive week, with political uncertainty causing the yen to fall 1.9% last week. Due to the instability in the Middle East and the US elections, as well as the expectation of interest rate cuts by central banks globally, spot gold hit a new high for three consecutive days last week before retracing some of the gains, but still rose more than 0.9% for the week, marking its sixth consecutive week of gains. The tense situation in the Middle East also pushed US oil and Brent oil to rise more than 4% for the week.
The market is increasingly expecting a soft landing for the US economy, and this week's series of economic data will test investors' bets. The US third-quarter GDP estimate will be released on Wednesday, the latest September PCE data will be released on Thursday, and the October non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday. With the policy meeting approaching, Fed officials have entered their routine quiet period, and the market generally believes that a 25-basis-point rate cut is highly likely. The dense data release and the approaching US elections will increase market volatility.
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