Odaily星球日报讯 Polymarket 上卡马拉·哈里斯赢得下周美国总统大选的几率正在上升，据悉哈里斯的赔率从 10 月 30 日的 33%上升至近 39%。特朗普的赔率随之下降，表明人们对他获胜的预期较低，尽管 61%的赔率表明他仍然是首选候选人。市场观察人士表示，哈里斯股价上涨可能反映出交易员买入该股以对冲他们对特朗普的竞猜情况，因为一些人声称，有关针对特朗普的投票违规行为的报道可能会影响市场。（Coindesk）

分析：Polymarket上哈里斯胜选几率上升或因竞猜特朗普的交易者对冲头寸

Odaily Odaily News: Kamala Harris&#39;s odds of winning next week&#39;s US presidential election are rising on Polymarket, with Harris&#39;s odds reportedly rising to nearly 39% from 33% on October 30. Trump&#39;s odds have subsequently fallen, indicating lower expectations for his victory, although the 61% odds suggest he is still the preferred candidate. Market observers said the rise in Harris&#39;s stock price may reflect traders buying the stock to hedge their bets on Trump, as some claim that reports of voting irregularities against Trump could affect the market. (Coindesk)

Analysis: Harris's chances of winning on Polymarket may rise as Trump traders hedge their positions

Derivative traders appear to be preparing for a bullish trend in Bitcoin in the days following the US election on November 5.

Author: Chandler, <Foresight News>
The 2024 US presidential election will come to a close on November 5, with the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump still hotly contested, and the political situation remaining tense.
Based on past experience, polls have an indicative value for the election, and the US political forecasting website RealClearP...

Trump is the chosen one? How does the trading market view the election market?

Odaily Planet Daily Report: Although Trump has a clear advantage in the prediction market, those betting on Trump may need to consider the latest economic data, which shows that Harris as the incumbent party candidate may benefit from substantial tailwind factors, according to the analysis of analysts at Moody's Analytics based on research on past presidential elections. Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "The analytical model shows that the outcome of this election is still uncertain, as four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, accounting for 57 electoral votes - are considered too close to call." A recent simulation for clients shows that the significant decline in mortgage interest rates and the sustained decline in gasoline prices since last year are improving Harris's chances of winning. Growth in household income may also help boost Harris's chances of winning. Begley said: "Harris's projected popular vote advantage nationwide is expected to increase by an average of 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to our upward revision of the forecast for actual household income in each state." The results of running the model 1,000 times show a 55.5% probability of Harris winning.

Moody's: Latest economic data could boost Harris' chances

The prediction market Polymarket has become a sensation during the 2024 US presidential election, with the platform reporting that bets on whether Trump or Harris will be elected president in early November have reached $2.7 billion. It is worth noting that the Polymarket platform currently shows Trump's chances of winning at 66%.

While the odds on Polymarket have been widely circulated on social media and mainstream media, analysts from two cryptocurrency research firms have found rampant wash trading on the Polymarket platform.

The blockchain company Chaos L...