Former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner in the upcoming presidential election according to betting markets, though recent trends suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is closing the gap as election day nears.
Earlier data positioned Trump strongly, with odds favoring him at over 60%. However, recent shifts show the race tightening, creating the possibility of a much closer outcome than initially predicted.
Trump’s Chances Slip on Polymarket as Harris Rises
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, Harris’s odds rose from 33% on October 30 to roughly 44%. This increase has corresponded with a drop in Trump’s odds, which now stand at a two-week low of 56%, reflecting a tempered outlook for his victory despite his continued lead.
A similar movement has appeared on Kalshi, a US-based betting platform, where Harris’s odds have climbed to 49%, trailing Trump by a slim two-point margin.
Read More: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide
US Presidential Election Odds. Source: KalshiAnalysts speculate this uptick may indicate traders hedging their Trump positions by investing in Harris shares. Some see this shift as a response to recent concerns about voting irregularities that could impact Trump’s standing. Meanwhile, others suggest that market dynamics could be influencing Harris’s odds, with some activity possibly pushing her numbers up.
“Across multiple betting avenues they’re manipulating the odds and creating downward pressure for Trump & GOP, and upward pressure for Kamala & Dems. Literally buying and selling within the same minute. Their accounts history are in the negative for it,” an X user stated.
Further, traditional polling data aligns with these recent shifts, showing Harris with a slight edge in key swing states. For instance, Polymarket attributes her recent gains to new polling data from Iowa, where she leads Trump 47% to 44%, primarily due to increased support from women voters. A Harris victory in Iowa would mark a significant shift, as Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020.
Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?
US Elections Odds in Iowa. Source: DesMoinesRegisterWhile recent developments suggest an unpredictable race, historical betting data implies that frontrunners typically win. However, the platforms have also been wrong, with betting markets notably underestimating Trump’s 2016 victory. Nevertheless, observers say these markets tend to be useful forecasting tools providing real-time information.
