Record correlation between S&P 500 and election results suggests Harris could win

According to historical data, when the S&P 500 index (SPX) rises in the three months before the election, the incumbent party's candidate has an 80% probability of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 index declines in the three months before the election, the opposing party's candidate has an 89% chance of winning. This has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators suggest that if the S&P 500 index had not erased its 8% gain since August in a single day, Harris would likely have won. Meanwhile, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political landscape are very unique, which may make this election an exception to the historical pattern.