火星财经消息，民意调查聚合器 Real Clear Polling 数据显示，当前特朗普相较于哈里斯的优势微乎其微，两者支持率为 48.5 对 48.4%。上周末，Polymarket 上 10,000 美元和 100,000 美元以上的押注量增加至高于平均水平。分析指出，哈里斯获胜概率的上升可能是由于交易员对冲押注，对 1 万美元以上的交易进行的研究表明，对哈里斯的大笔押注和战略交易都是为了应对特朗普败选。一些市场观察人士表示，哈里斯获胜几率的上升反映了交易员的对冲头寸，他们也押注她的共和党对手特朗普获胜。有关特朗普的投票违规报道可能会进一步影响市场押注，过去一周，有关投票和欺诈的谣言充斥社交媒体，如果属实，将有利于民主党。知名政治押注者“Domer”上周日在 X 帖子中表示，根据各种民意调查和选民行为趋势，其认为哈里斯成为下一任总统的机会为 55-60%。 此外，Polymarket 指出，对比鲜明的提前投票趋势表明，共和党人提前投票的人数多于民主党人，这可能意味着策略性投票或选民行为的转变。（CoinDesk）

<div>火星财经消息，民意调查聚合器 Real Clear Polling 数据显示，当前特朗普相较于哈里斯的优势微乎其微，两者支持率为 48.5 对 48.4%。上周末，Polymarket 上 10,000 美元和 100,000 美元以上的押注量增加至高于平均水平。分析指出，哈里斯获胜概率的上升可能是由于交易员对冲押注，对 1 万美元以上的交易进行的研究表明，对哈里斯的大笔押注和战略交易都是为了应对特朗普败选。一些市场观察人士表示，哈里斯获胜几率的上升反映了交易员的对冲头寸，他们也押注她的共和党对手特朗普获胜。有关特朗普的投票违规报道可能会进一步影响市场押注，过去一周，有关投票和欺诈的谣言充斥社交媒体，如果属实，将有利于民主党。知名政治押注者“Domer”上周日在 X 帖子中表示，根据各种民意调查和选民行为趋势，其认为哈里斯成为下一任总统的机会为 55-60%。 此外，Polymarket 指出，对比鲜明的提前投票趋势表明，共和党人提前投票的人数多于民主党人，这可能意味着策略性投票或选民行为的转变。（CoinDesk）</div>

Polymarket上哈里斯胜选概率上升或因交易员对冲押注

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> not translated:

According to a report from Mars Finance, data from the polling aggregator Real Clear Polling shows that the current advantage of Trump over Harris is negligible, with their support rates at 48.5% and 48.4% respectively. Over the past weekend, the trading volume on Polymarket for bets of $10,000 and above increased to above average levels. Analysts point out that the rise in the probability of Harris' victory may be due to hedging bets by traders, and a study of transactions over $10,000 shows that large bets and strategic trades on Harris are to hedge against a Trump defeat. Some market observers say the rise in the probability of Harris' victory reflects traders' hedging positions, as they are also betting on her Republican opponent Trump to win. Reports of voting irregularities related to Trump may further impact market bets, as rumors about voting and fraud have been circulating on social media over the past week, and if true, would benefit the Democratic Party. Well-known political bettor "Domer" stated in a <X> post on Sunday that based on various polls and voter behavior trends, he believes the chance of Harris becoming the next president is 55-60%. Additionally, Polymarket noted that the contrasting trends in early voting suggest that more Republicans than Democrats have voted early, which may indicate strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior. (CoinDesk)

<div>According to the news from Mars Finance, data from the public opinion survey aggregator Real Clear Polling shows that the current advantage of Trump over Harris is negligible, with their support rates at 48.5% and 48.4% respectively. Over the past weekend, the trading volume of bets over $10,000 and $100,000 on Polymarket has increased to above the average level. The analysis points out that the rise in the probability of Harris' victory may be due to hedging bets by traders, and a study of transactions over $10,000 shows that large bets and strategic trades on Harris are to hedge against Trump's defeat. Some market observers believe that the rise in the probability of Harris' victory reflects the hedging positions of traders, who are also betting on her Republican opponent Trump to win. Reports of voting irregularities related to Trump may further affect market bets, and rumors about voting and fraud have been rampant on social media in the past week. If true, this will benefit the Democratic Party. The well-known political bettor "Domer" stated in a post on X last Sunday that based on various polls and voter behavior trends, he believes that the chance of Harris becoming the next president is 55-60%. In addition, Polymarket pointed out that the contrasting trend of early voting shows that the number of Republicans voting early is higher than that of Democrats, which may imply a change in strategic voting or voter behavior.</div>

Harris's chances of winning the election on Polymarket may rise as traders hedge their bets

According to the report by Forbes, the latest poll results show that the US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris is leading the former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump by a slim margin of 1%, but 10% of voters may change their minds before the election. Furthermore, in the seven key swing states that could determine the final winner of the election, Harris is leading Trump with a support rate of 49% to 48%, while a week ago Trump was leading Harris with a support rate of 50% to 46%.

US poll: Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of 1%

Odaily Planet Daily Report According to on-chain analyst Yu Jing's monitoring, the US election is approaching, and a certain whale has spent 5 million USDC on Polymarket in the past 11 hours to bet on Harris' victory. He withdrew 5 million USDC from Binance 11 hours ago and then deposited the full amount into Polymarket to bet on Harris winning the election. If Harris wins, he will receive a return of up to $10.87 million.

A whale spent 5 million USDC on Polymarket in the past 11 hours to bet on Harris' victory

Odaily Planet Daily Report: 10x Research in its market analysis pointed out that Trump's winning probability on Polymarket has dropped from 68% to around 59%, although he still maintains a slight lead in all swing states. The average betting value on RealClearPolitics shows Trump's winning probability at 58.3%. Experts warn that this election is too close to call, as the result may depend on one or two key swing states, and although polls show Trump has a better chance of winning, the Democrats may still have an advantage in these states.