The most important event of the week:
Retail investors' fantasies are:
- Harris elected, BTC crashes 50%
- Trump elected, BTC surges 10w
1. The results of the November 5th election may be announced on the same night. Remember the day Trump was elected last time, the market went from limit up to limit down, and many people were wiped out in a single day.
2. The November 6th to November 7th policy meeting, if there is a rate cut, it may lead to a wave of increases, if not, it will most likely follow the original trend. According to the non-farm data, this policy meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points, but if these two events are combined, the situation becomes more complicated, and there may be a major fluctuation.
The structure of this round of BTC market sentiment is clear, regardless of whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. The big players are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their own interests, not responsible for Trump or Harris.
So after the election results are announced at noon on the 6th, the market's volatility may be far lower than most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of the rate cut, such as when Trump attended the BTC conference, etc. The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, the market will just spike up/down a bit.
Then the market will continue to move as it should. The BTC market structure has gone through a series of actions such as a half-year sell-off/oscillation wash/forced accumulation/absorption, and will not be disrupted by a single event. The US election is also beneficial to the big players, as it can increase volatility and market divergence, and provide a good story to tell. The US election is the most useful tool for big players to tell stories after the ETF.
The big event in the US this week has arrived, get ready for a super week
The total open interest of BTC futures across the network has increased slightly compared to last Sunday, and has now re-broken the $40 billion mark, so short-term rebound volatility trading during the election period will still occur.
Before the official announcement of the election results, the emotional and disorderly volatility in the price will not be less, and it is even possible that this week will see a wave of market movements every time a swing state announces its results.
Monday (November 4): Overall relatively calm. The ISM manufacturing PMI showed a narrowing decline in new orders, but the September data saw a larger decline.
Tuesday (November 5): US presidential election voting, Trump and Harris are neck and neck. The market is repeatedly going through the trading logic for the two candidates, with both sides betting.
Wednesday (November 6): US election results announced (if successful)
Thursday (November 7): Fed interest rate decision. Although recent economic data has been weak, it is unlikely to change the Fed's pace of regular rate cuts. Powell is expected to maintain his previous hawkish stance, describing the weakness in non-farm data as temporary, while being vigilant about higher-than-expected inflation data.
Friday (November 8): Release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations data. The consumer confidence index has rebounded slightly recently, while inflation expectations have remained stable. With the announcement of the presidential election results, it is expected that businesses and consumers will start another round of spending.
Finally
November 2024 is destined to be extraordinary, with a combination of factors such as the election, rate cuts, and tech sector earnings in a single week, which will have a significant impact on the financial market trend, so everyone must be highly vigilant this week.
As for the impact of the election on cryptocurrencies, regardless of who wins, it will not affect the long-term narrative. So let's discuss the short-term, the market has already seen a wave of corrections over the weekend due to the decline in Trump's approval rating, and this trend can be seen as the market to some extent pre-digesting some of the negative news of Trump's defeat.
If Trump loses, the short-term will see further declines, but the magnitude will not be large, and the outlook for the future remains optimistic. If Trump wins, since the market has already corrected last weekend, there will be no "sell the news" situation after the election, and it will directly surge upwards.
If Harris is elected, the market will decline in the short-term, but the magnitude will not be large, don't panic blindly, the BTC behind the election hype has substantial support, and we remain optimistic about the market trend next year.
My advice is to either play light or just watch, as these fluctuations are most likely aimed at your stop losses.
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