Daxian Talks About Coins: The US election and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be released on November 4! Is a new high for Bitcoin just around the corner?

The US presidential election will officially arrive on November 5 local time. Under the background of many market investors betting on Trump's victory, related concept stocks and Bitcoin have shown a rising trend. However, as the potential returns gradually decrease and the risk-reward ratio continues to deteriorate, everyone has begun to gradually take profits. On the other hand, the US stock market also generally performed poorly last week, which may also be one of the reasons for the market decline. However, the sage believes that the market momentum after the election is expected to drive the market to continue to rise. In addition, there is another major news this week. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision for November on November 8, which may also bring violent fluctuations to the global market. Currently, the market believes that the probability of a 1-code rate cut this month has risen to 98.9%, and only 1.1% of people believe that the Fed will continue to maintain the interest rate unchanged. In terms of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin fell to a low of $68,800 in the early morning of the 2nd, and the price continues to challenge to return above $70,000, but the upward momentum is not strong. Around 11:30 pm on the 3rd, it hit a new low for the month at $67,478. As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded, quoted at $69,164, with a drop of 0.35% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin 4-hour chart First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the current price is close to the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, and is trying to break through the middle rail upwards. The upper and lower rails of the Bollinger Bands are converging inward, indicating that the subsequent market volatility will decrease. If the price can effectively stabilize above the middle rail, it will continue to break through the upper rail. If it fails to effectively stabilize above the middle rail, it may pull back to the lower rail support. Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the KDJ three-line values have formed a golden cross at the bottom, and have not yet entered the overbought area, indicating that the price is expected to continue to rebound upwards in the short term. Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H chart of Bitcoin, the DIF line and the DEA line are running around the 0 axis, and there are signs of forming a golden cross. At the same time, the green histogram of MACD is gradually shortening, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening. If the DIF line and the DEA line form a golden cross upwards, accompanied by the MACD histogram turning from green to red, then the price of Bitcoin will usher in a significant rebound. Bitcoin 1-hour chart First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H chart of Bitcoin, the current price of Bitcoin is above the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that it is currently in a strong upward trend, but at the same time there is a risk of being overbought. The Bollinger Bands channel has expanded, indicating that market volatility is increasing, and there may be large fluctuations in the short term. Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator on the 1H chart of Bitcoin, the K-line value and the D-line value have already reached a relatively high position, and the J-line value is also in the overbought area, so it may face the pressure of a pullback in the short term. If the KDJ forms a death cross at a high level, it may pull back in the short term; if the KDJ three-line values continue to rise, it means that the buying power is still strong, and the price will also rise accordingly. Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H chart of Bitcoin, the DIF line has just crossed upwards through the DEA line to form a golden cross, which is a clear bullish signal. At the same time, the red histogram of MACD is growing, indicating that the bullish force is strong, and the price is expected to recover the decline of the previous few days. In summary, from the 4H level of Bitcoin, the price of Bitcoin is in a correction stage after the previous rise. From the position of the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, this is a key resistance level. If it can effectively stabilize above the middle rail, it will have the opportunity to challenge upwards again. From the 1H level of Bitcoin, the breakthrough of the upper rail of the Bollinger Bands and the golden cross of MACD support the upward trend of the price. However, due to the overbought state of KDJ, attention should be paid to the risk of short-term pullback. In summary, the sage gives the following suggestions for reference: Long Bitcoin at around $68,900, with a target of $69,900-$70,400, and defend $68,500. Writing time: (2024-11-04, 05:50) (Article - Sage Talks Coins)