According to ChainCatcher's message, QCP's daily analysis states that the race between Harris and Trump has reached a stalemate, and Polymarket's odds are gradually approaching the actual poll estimates. Currently, Polymarket still leans towards Trump, giving him a 55% chance of winning, but this is significantly lower than the 66% it was a week ago.
The sideways price trend over the weekend and the decline in leveraged perpetual contract positions from $30 billion to $26 billion indicate that the market remains cautious. The options market has observed a large number of buy orders for $75,000 call options expiring at the end of November since last Friday. As the election date approaches, the relevant option positions are also increasing, with implied volatility exceeding 87% on Friday, even though the actual volatility is only 40%.
It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate within this range until the election results become clearer this week. If Trump wins, it may trigger a rapid price increase; conversely, if Kamala wins, the market may decline.
