Odaily星球日报讯 当地时间 11 月 4 日，据《国会山报》和美国爱默生学院联合进行的一项民意调查结果显示，美国副总统、民主党总统候选人哈里斯和美国前总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普在美国大选关键“摇摆州”的支持率总体而言不相上下。特朗普在北卡罗来纳州、宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州和佐治亚州占据优势，而哈里斯在密歇根州占据优势，二人在内华达州和威斯康星州的支持率持平。（金十）

哈里斯和特朗普在关键“摇摆州”支持率已不相上下

Odaily Odaily reported that on November 4, local time, according to a poll jointly conducted by The Hill and Emerson College, the US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump have similar support rates in key &quot;swing states&quot; in the US election. Trump has an advantage in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, while Harris has an advantage in Michigan. The two have the same support rate in Nevada and Wisconsin. (Jinshi)

Harris and Trump's support in key "swing states" is now on par

Odaily Planet Daily Report: According to the prediction market Polymarket, Harris's chances of winning in Michigan and Wisconsin have surpassed Trump's. If Harris wins these two swing states, Pennsylvania will become the decisive factor in determining the winner of the US presidential election. On October 31, the CNN polling agency SRSS released a poll showing that neither candidate had a clear advantage, but Harris's chances of winning in two of the six "battleground states" have risen sharply. Harris's chances of winning Wisconsin and Michigan have increased by 5% and 6% respectively. In addition, her probability of winning the general election has risen to 45.4%, while Trump's probability has fallen to 54.6%, a difference of less than 10 percentage points. Furthermore, a report released by <GAL> Research shows that Trump is leading in 18 different platforms, with varying results from proprietary models to prediction markets. However, the data shows that most of the results are very close, and he has lost his lead in 13 of the 18 platforms evaluated.

Polymarket data shows that the outcome of the US election may depend on Pennsylvania

[United States]
November 5th is the presidential election day in the United States, and it will also be a day that will profoundly impact the global situation for the next four years. In this upcoming U.S. election, the voters' choice will affect the policy direction of the United States, China's policy response, as well as the trends of cryptocurrencies and the stock market.
This explainer post will provide detailed information on the election mechanism, timeline, winning probabilities, and the public's perception of the candidates. Through these analyses, whether you are an enthusiastic election observer or an investor interested in the cryptocurrency market, you will gain a deeper understanding of the current political situation and its potential impact on the future economy.

A must-read before the US election on November 5: Here are all the twists and turns you need to know

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The article discusses the complex situation and arbitrage opportunities that Polymarket platform may face if Trump loses the election. The article assumes that after AP, Foxnews, and NBCNews announce Trump's defeat, the market may enter a "dual controversy" phase. The author believes that there will be arbitrage opportunities during the controversy period, and points out that if Foxnews does not announce the election result, it may make the situation more chaotic. The article reminds that this is a hypothetical discussion and looks forward to insights from industry insiders.

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