Author: shushu, BlockBeats
Regardless of the outcome of next week's presidential election, the SEC is likely to welcome a new chairman. Traditionally, the SEC chairman usually resigns when a new president takes office. Therefore, whether Harris or Trump wins, the SEC's leadership is likely to undergo major changes.
According to the Unchained report, supporters of Harris' campaign are pushing for her to replace the current chairman Gary Gensler, and have already begun vetting candidates. If the Harris administration takes office, it may adopt a more crypto-friendly policy than the Biden administration to improve the regulatory environment. However, she remains cautious on key issues such as taxation, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, and is not as pro-crypto as Trump.
On the other hand, Trump promised at the Bitcoin conference that if elected, he would "fire" Gensler on his first day in office. Although he cannot legally directly dismiss Gensler, he does have the power to immediately demote him to a commissioner, a stance that has the crypto industry eagerly anticipating Trump's regulatory policy.
Review of Trump's Pro-Crypto Policy
The Republican Party has traditionally emphasized personal freedom, and its values are more in line with the decentralized principles of cryptocurrencies. The Republican National Committee has pledged in its party platform that Trump will defend the right to mine Bitcoin and "ensure that every American has the right to self-custody digital assets and trade freely without government surveillance." In contrast, the Democratic Party often advocates for stronger government power and regulation, which may clash with the crypto community's ideology.
Trump has shown a strong interest in the digital asset industry, stating that his goal is to make the US the "global crypto center and Bitcoin superpower." He supports Bitcoin mining and has promised to protect the right to self-custody. Furthermore, during the campaign, Trump used Bitcoin to buy burgers for restaurant customers and criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) tough stance on cryptocurrencies, vowing to appoint a pro-crypto chairman if re-elected. Trump even launched his own DeFi project - World Liberty Financial.
Trump has proposed a series of crypto policies, including:
Establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Trump stated that the government will "retain all Bitcoin currently held or future acquired by the US government" as the "core of a strategic national Bitcoin reserve." As of October 2023, the US government holds over $5 billion worth of Bitcoin, primarily seized through criminal investigations. However, it is currently unclear how these Bitcoin reserves will be utilized, their feasibility, and whether the crypto industry will widely accept this initiative.
Establishing a Crypto Presidential Advisory Council
Trump promised in Nashville to establish a "Bitcoin and Crypto Presidential Advisory Council" and stated that the council would be composed of "industry supporters" rather than "crypto skeptics" to set the rules.
Banning the Federal Reserve from Issuing a Digital Currency
Although many countries are advancing central bank digital currencies, this trend has faced resistance in the US crypto community. While the Federal Reserve has not yet decided whether to issue a digital dollar, it released a report in January 2022 outlining the potential costs and benefits of a CBDC.
Trump has publicly opposed this proposal, calling it a "dangerous threat to freedom" multiple times. In May 2024, the House passed a bill to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC, although the bill still needs further progress to become law. It's worth noting that while Trump supports cryptocurrencies, his tariff policies may create economic uncertainty. The long-term impact of his policies on the market and the crypto industry remains to be observed.
Will "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce Not Become the SEC Chairman?
Since Gensler is likely to step down, the industry is also hoping for a new crypto-friendly chairman to take the helm. Currently, the most prominent candidate is US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce, who is also known as the "Crypto Mother" within the industry.
Hester Peirce has publicly criticized Gensler's approach of regulating the industry through litigation rather than rulemaking. On the surface, if Trump wins the White House, she seems like a likely candidate, as she has been the most vocal Republican on the commission under Gensler's leadership, and the president typically nominates a chairman from their own party.
When asked in an interview what her top priority would be if she became SEC chairman, Peirce's response was "to ensure the vitality of the industry, allow investors to make their own decisions, and ensure that we don't erect unnecessary barriers in our rulemaking."
However, according to the Unchained report, four sources close to or frequently in contact with Peirce revealed that she does not want to serve as SEC chairman and plans to leave the commission after her term expires in June 2025. A spokesperson for Peirce's office stated that "the only thing Commissioner Peirce is considering doing after leaving is becoming a beekeeper, and even that she is somewhat hesitant about."
The sources unanimously believe that Peirce has been explicitly stating for at least several months that she wants to leave the SEC, with one source saying they heard of her desire to resign a year ago.
Will Harris Continue the Biden Administration's Crypto Regulatory Pressure?
During the Biden administration, the regulatory pressure on cryptocurrencies has significantly increased, with the SEC bringing charges against multiple crypto asset exchanges. To address the rapid development of the crypto market, Biden signed an important digital asset executive order, directing government agencies to strike a balance between regulation and development.
This executive order aims to ensure that digital assets find a balance between innovation and safety, promoting the healthy development of the crypto market while mitigating its potential systemic risks. Under these measures, the crypto industry faces higher compliance pressure, especially in ensuring market transparency and investor protection.
In addition to direct regulation, the SEC has also implemented stricter disclosure requirements, particularly in the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) area, under the Biden administration's push. The new rules require listed companies to provide more information about their business models and potential risks, responding to investors' concerns about corporate social responsibility and risk management. This initiative not only affects traditional companies but also indirectly impacts businesses involved in crypto assets, requiring them to disclose more operational details to the public.
Harris' stance on crypto policy has been limited, as she has only stated that her administration will "encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors." Recently, in response to lower-than-expected support from Black voters, she has proposed a series of economic security plans, including a promise to establish a crypto regulatory framework aimed at protecting Black male crypto investors.
However, this framework is only targeted at Black voters, lacking clear regulatory details or specific policy positions, and has been criticized by the crypto community as hypocritical, seen as an attempt to win votes by exploiting cryptocurrencies. The current Biden-Harris administration has taken a more confrontational regulatory approach towards the crypto industry, taking actions such as multiple lawsuits, restricting traditional banking services, and vetoing bipartisan legislation.
Harris' "Gatekeepers" Are Not Crypto-Friendly
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, published an analysis stating that there is evidence that Harris and her advisory team will continue the Biden administration's hostile attitude towards cryptocurrencies. "New evidence suggests that Harris will continue to suppress cryptocurrencies, as her choice of advisors indicates that she will continue Biden's antagonism towards cryptocurrencies, as Harris is collaborating with two key anti-crypto officials in the Biden administration, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti."
To corroborate his analysis, Alex Thorn provided detailed evidence of Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti's opposition to crypto. He pointed out that Brian Deese had written an article in January 2023, which, under the guise of supporting innovation, actually labeled crypto as "fraudulent" and "dangerous". As for Bharat Ramamurti, he had long collaborated with U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, the crypto arch-villain, and provided her with economic policy advice.
Furthermore, Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti have also intervened in the U.S. stablecoin legislation, advocating for the Federal Reserve and banks to have comprehensive oversight over stablecoins. In summary, the evidence suggests that Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti are not crypto-friendly, and Harris' decision to include them in her advisory team may disappoint the crypto community if she ultimately wins the election.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban also believes that Harris' team is inclined to oppose an "enforcement-based regulatory" approach, and instead hopes to promote the development of the crypto market through a clear regulatory framework. Cuban pointed out that Harris "prefers clear regulatory rules, rather than relying on litigation", which would allow businesses to develop applications without having to relocate overseas.
However, industry observers believe that even if Harris replaces Gensler, the enforcement intensity in the crypto market will not weaken. Analysts from the renowned firm Bernstein predict that if Harris wins, Bitcoin's price could see a significant decline by the end of the year, potentially dropping by as much as 10%.
Note: This article is a summary of previous BlockBeats articles.
