Odaily星球日报讯 去中心化预测市场平台 Polymarket 数据显示，前总统特朗普在 2024 年美国大选中的获胜概率已攀升至 61%。据悉，Polymarket 通过用户下注来反映市场对各类事件的预期。不同于传统民调，这类平台更关注资金流向和市场情绪的变化，已吸引了超 30 亿美元的“真金白银”支持，成为分析政治形势的有效参考，同时更具有说服力。。与此同时，Solana 区块链上迅速涌现大量与特朗普相关的代币和预测活动，彰显了区块链与政治事件的深度交织。

Polymarket数据显示特朗普当选概率升至61%

Odaily Odaily News: Data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket shows that former President Trump&#39;s chances of winning the 2024 US election have climbed to 61%. It is reported that Polymarket reflects the market&#39;s expectations for various events through user bets. Unlike traditional polls, such platforms pay more attention to the flow of funds and changes in market sentiment, and have attracted more than $3 billion in &quot;real money&quot; support, becoming an effective reference for analyzing the political situation and more convincing. At the same time, a large number of Trump-related tokens and prediction activities have rapidly emerged on the Solana blockchain, demonstrating the deep interweaving of blockchain and political events.

Polymarket data shows Trump's chances of winning have risen to 61%

Here is the English translation, with the content within <> not translated:

According to a report from Mars Finance, data from the polling aggregator Real Clear Polling shows that the current advantage of Trump over Harris is negligible, with their support rates at 48.5% and 48.4% respectively. Over the past weekend, the trading volume on Polymarket for bets of $10,000 and above increased to above average levels. Analysts point out that the rise in the probability of Harris' victory may be due to hedging bets by traders, and a study of transactions over $10,000 shows that large bets and strategic trades on Harris are to hedge against a Trump defeat. Some market observers say the rise in the probability of Harris' victory reflects traders' hedging positions, as they are also betting on her Republican opponent Trump to win. Reports of voting irregularities related to Trump may further impact market bets, as rumors about voting and fraud have been circulating on social media over the past week, and if true, would benefit the Democratic Party. Well-known political bettor "Domer" stated in a <X> post on Sunday that based on various polls and voter behavior trends, he believes the chance of Harris becoming the next president is 55-60%. Additionally, Polymarket noted that the contrasting trends in early voting suggest that more Republicans than Democrats have voted early, which may indicate strategic voting or a shift in voter behavior. (CoinDesk)

Harris's chances of winning the election on Polymarket may rise as traders hedge their bets

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jing, the largest address 0xd23...f29 betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has continued to increase its position by $3.1 million in the past 6 hours, betting on Trump's victory. He has now invested 17.2 million USDC in Trump's victory, and if Trump wins, he will profit $10.94 million.

The largest address betting on Trump's victory on Polymarket has increased its position by another $3.1 million in the past 6 hours

After the controversial period, the market should judge it as "Trump loses".