Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | jk
In the just-concluded 2024 U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump successfully won the presidency, a news that will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the international situation and the cryptocurrency market as the highlight of the second half of this year.
In this article, we will delve into the potential impact of Trump's victory on the crypto industry, including the overall context and market reaction to Trump's re-election as president, the meme coins associated with him and their short-term volatility, a review of his previous campaign promises, and a forecast of the impact of potential future policy measures on the crypto market.
Trump's Return to Office, Violent Short-term Market Reaction
In the early morning of November 6, local time in the U.S., Republican candidate Donald Trump was basically confirmed as the new President of the United States. (Extended reading: Why is it "basically confirmed"? Please see the previous Odaily Planet Daily summary of the election mechanism 《What You Need to Know Before the U.S. Election: The Full Story》) In the voting, the Republicans successfully won several key swing states, including North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, and as of the time of writing, had obtained 277 electoral votes, about 51.94% of the popular vote, winning over opponent Kamala Harris and successfully becoming the President of the United States.
In fact, from the moment Trump won the key swing states, his victory as the U.S. president was already a foregone conclusion. However, from the start of the vote count on November 5, to Trump's clear advantage emerging, and then the release of the swing state vote tallies, the intervening hours saw Bitcoin's price action go wild: on the evening of November 5, Beijing time, when the U.S. polling stations opened, Bitcoin was still fluctuating around $68,000; by the early morning of November 6, Beijing time, it had soared all the way to break through the $70,000 mark, reaching a new high of over $75,000 by noon, and then fluctuating above $74,000.
Bitcoin's price movement today. Source: Coingecko
Ethereum's performance was also impressive, rising from around $2,400 on election day to over $2,600, and then fluctuating above $2,500. Meanwhile, Solana's 24-hour gain reached 15%, rising to around $185, while Doge, a meme coin closely associated with Trump's staunch supporter Musk, saw a daily gain of around 25%, with a 7-day gain reaching 15%, outperforming other large-cap coins. It can be seen that the market has high expectations for Trump's election, and also high expectations for the positive impact his term will have on the crypto industry.
The three major U.S. stock indexes have not yet been able to observe the impact of Trump's victory due to market timing. However, stocks related to Trump, such as Trump Media & Technology Group, have also surged after hours, with the post-market price up 10.43% as of the time of writing.
DJT stock price also surged. Source: Google
Another "MAGA"
With the news of Trump's victory, meme coins associated with him have also seen significant volatility.
The MAGA token saw a 24-hour gain of 20%, currently trading at $3.95, and the expected large-address sell-off did not occur, but instead saw a significant rise;
MAGA token price movement, source: Coingecko
TREMP saw a 24-hour gain of 25.2%, currently trading at $0.3793; in comparison, STRUMP saw the expected sell-off, with a 24-hour drop of over 16%, currently trading at $0.005369; FIGHT rose 4.7% in 24 hours, and TRUMPCOIN fell 3.2% in 24 hours.
In comparison, Harris' meme has already crashed: HORRIS saw a 24-hour drop of 91.6%, and other meme-related concepts have also basically disappeared underwater. It can be seen that the meme market is the most honest: Trump's memes have been recharged with expectations for the future, and some have chosen to take profits, while Harris' memes have had their expectations completely disappear.
However, it must be said that the current rally may lead to a short-term pullback, as the whale addresses may choose to sell out after the victory, especially after the arrival of the next day in the U.S., when the news of the victory has been fully digested by the market. At the same time, the current decline of some memes does not represent a long-term trough, as the meme concept will continue to fluctuate with each of Trump's crypto-related policies after he becomes president, which also leads to our next question: what policies will he implement?
Trump's Campaign Promises: Is Gary Gensler Really Going to Resign This Time?
Trump's victory will have a profound impact on the policy direction, economic development, and crypto market of the United States. His attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone many changes in his speeches and public statements over the past few years, from criticizing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, to holding a certain interest in blockchain technology, and finally to accepting crypto donations, being passionate about the crypto industry and speaking at the Bitcoin conference. This transformation makes it difficult to pin down his attitude. Arthur Hayes believes that "courting the young, politically active, and newly wealthy crypto crowd may help Trump win the election... Trump is a savvy politician. He will say anything to anyone who wants to get re-elected. Once in office, anything related to crypto will become a distant memory."
In a previous Odaily Planet Daily article 《Guess How Many of Trump's Past Campaign Promises Were Fulfilled?》, we summarized that during Trump's previous presidential term, he successfully fulfilled about 23% of his promises, compromised and partially fulfilled 22% of his promises, but broke about 53% of his promises. That is to say, the crypto-related goals, which do not occupy a major part of Trump's political agenda, may indeed be broken or thrown into the trash.
Regardless of the final outcome, Trump has indeed made several promises that are beneficial to the promotion of the crypto industry, as a candidate who is more crypto-friendly than Harris:
Promised to end the regulatory hostility towards the crypto industry;
Promised to protect the right of Americans to self-custody their digital assets;
Promised to release Ross Ulbricht, who was convicted of creating the Dark Web marketplace "Silk Road";
Promised to keep Senator Elizabeth Warren (who proposed a strong crypto regulation bill) and "her henchmen" away from Bitcoin holders;
Promised to (on his first day in office) replace Gary Gensler (Odaily has summarized the potential future SEC chairs for you, see 《Who Will Be the New SEC Chair After Gary Gensler?》);
Promised to establish a Bitcoin national strategic reserve and not sell the Bitcoin it holds;
Promised to establish a Bitcoin advisory council;
Does not support CBDC.
