Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010 )
Around 9 a.m. on November 11, according to OKX market data, the BTC price once surged to around $81,733, which also means that Bitcoin has officially stood firm at the $81,000 mark, entering the long-awaited "80,000 era", with only about 23% of the increase left to reach the "$100,000 mark". Stimulated by many positive factors such as Trump's successful victory in the US presidential election, the continuous inflow of BTC spot ETFs, and the continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin has once again embarked on its "journey to the stars".
Odaily Planet Daily will sort out the relevant views on the market situation in this article for readers' reference.
At the national level: the situation is very good, and Trump's inauguration has driven Bitcoin to become a strategic reserve
In the previous article "Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, is $75,000 the starting point of the bull market?", we mentioned that whether Trump can be elected will have important implications for the cryptocurrency market from the following aspects:
Attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation;
Establishment of CBDC digital dollar;
Bitcoin strategic reserve;
Selection of key personnel in various government departments, including the SEC chairman;
The direction of US political and economic policies.
Among them, the most immediate impact is the Bitcoin strategic reserve; in the long run, cryptocurrency regulation and a series of key positions in government departments such as the SEC chairman will continue to affect the attitude of the United States and even the world towards the cryptocurrency industry. According to the analysis of multiple institutions and industry insiders, as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, the Bitcoin national strategic reserve may become the choice of more and more sovereign countries.
Trump's election plans to include BTC in the national strategic reserve: bullish for BTC
With Trump's election, the sentiment in the global cryptocurrency market has undergone a significant change. Many experts generally believe that Trump's insistence on embracing BTC policies will have a positive impact on BTC, and it is expected to promote its adoption as a national strategic reserve.
Under Trump's leadership, the cryptocurrency market will return to a preference for the value storage properties of BTC, and many experts believe: For the cryptocurrency market led by BTC, Trump's election has undoubtedly injected a strong stimulant.
Bitcoin Magazine CEO: A certain sovereign country is quietly increasing its holdings of Bitcoin, and has become one of the top five holders
David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine and one of Trump's campaign crypto assistants, recently discussed the possibility that an unnamed sovereign country is quietly buying Bitcoin. He said: "At least one country has been actively buying Bitcoin and is now one of the top five holders. I hope we'll hear from them soon."
Some community users believe that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may be the unnamed countries that Bailey referred to, and he said it was not China, Ukraine, the UK, Finland or Georgia.
German MP Joana Cotar: If the US uses BTC as a strategic reserve, all European countries will FOMO
According to Bitcoin Magazine, German parliamentarian Joana Cotar said, "If the US buys Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, I think all European countries will experience FOMO."
Fundstrat Co-founder: BTC may reach $100,000 this year and become a treasury reserve asset to make up for the US deficit
Tom Lee, co-founder and research head of Fundstrat, said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin could become a "treasury reserve asset" to help make up for the US deficit, and Bitcoin could still reach $100,000 this year, with a lot of upside potential.
Bitcoin's national-level staunch holders: El Salvador and Bhutan
According to The Bitcoin Office of El Salvador disclosure, El Salvador is still continuously purchasing 1 BTC per day, and as of November 11, its Bitcoin holdings have reached 5,930.77 BTC, with a market value of about $480 million.
At the same time, the Kingdom of Bhutan is actively engaged in Bitcoin mining, relevant data shows that the Kingdom of Bhutan's weekly Bitcoin mining output is about 55 to 75 BTC, worth about $3.6 million to $4.9 million. Previously, on October 29 when the BTC price surged to $71,000, they transferred 929 BTC to Binance, worth about $66.12 million. Currently, according to Arkham website data, the Kingdom of Bhutan holds 12,562 BTC (worth about $1.02 billion).
At the institutional level: investor interest is growing, and industry giants are still increasing their holdings
At the same time, with the further dissemination of the news of Trump's election, the interest of institutional investors has also been constantly increasing, constituting the main driving force for this round of Bitcoin price breaking new highs.
Bloomberg ETF Analyst: Possibly due to the Trump effect, the US Bitcoin ETF absorbed $1.4 billion in funds on November 7
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote that possibly due to the Trump effect, the US Bitcoin ETF absorbed $1.4 billion in funds on November 7, with BlackRock's IBIT absorbing $1.1 billion. The US Bitcoin ETF absorbed $6.7 billion last month and $25.5 billion so far this year, and is now close to 93% of the goal of surpassing Satoshi's 1.1 million BTC.
The ETF Store President: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF's assets have surpassed its Gold ETF
According to The ETF Store President Nate Geraci disclosure, last Friday, the asset size of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has surpassed its iShares Gold ETF (IAU), and it only took 10 months to achieve this, while iShares Gold ETF (IAU) was launched by BlackRock in January 2005.
BTC ETF ＞ Gold ETF
MicroStrategy Founder: Will continue to increase BTC holdings
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor hinted that he may continue to increase BTC holdings, he said: "I think the saylortracker website needs more 'green dots'." *(Odaily Planet Daily note: This website tracks MicroStrategy's record of increasing Bitcoin holdings, and green dots mean the operation of purchasing BTC.)
Previously, it was reported that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have a floating profit of over $1 billion.
VanEck CEO: The potential price of BTC is $300,000 per coin
VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck previously said in an interview that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high on Friday, and then BTC price broke through $77,000 for the first time.
When asked whether he believes Bitcoin will reach $100,000, he said: "Bitcoin will set a new all-time high - if it sets a new all-time high today, I think it will go even higher. My basic assumption is that the overall value of Bitcoin will ultimately be half the value of all outstanding gold, so its potential price is around $300,000. Retail investors are indeed flocking to Bitcoin ETFs."
Gemini Co-Founder: Bitcoin's Rise to $80,000 Driven by Stable Institutional ETF Demand, Not Retail FOMO
Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss stated that Bitcoin reaching $80,000 was primarily driven by sustained institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs, not retail investor activity. He believes this "sticky" demand from institutional investors is a sign of a long-term bullish sentiment, and the current market cycle is still in its early stages.
Winklevoss said: "The path to $80,000 Bitcoin has been paved by stable ETF demand. Not retail FOMO. No fanfare. People are buying ETFs, not selling them. This is sticky HODL capital. The floor keeps rising, we've just won a coin flip, the real game hasn't even started yet."
Bitwise CEO: Bitcoin Price Surge Won't Trigger Concerns Over Overvaluation Like Stocks
Bitwise Invest CEO Hunter Horsley stated that while Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this week, it did not trigger investor concerns over overvaluation like stocks."Bitcoin is different," he explained, when a company's stock "goes up, the price-to-earnings ratio also goes up, and at some point, people will say 'this is overpriced' and then they'll lose interest until the price comes down."
Horsley added that without the same financial performance metrics, "when the price of Bitcoin goes up, people think it's more likely to succeed, and therefore more valuable, so it's likely to go up further."
CoinShares Research Head: BTC Reaching $100,000 Requires Only ~33% Upside, Accounting for Just 10% of Gold Market
CoinShares research head James Butterfill previously expressed the view that four catalysts will drive future Bitcoin price appreciation: changes in SEC leadership, crypto-friendly regulation, further adoption by large companies, and Federal Reserve rate cuts. James Butterfill further explained that Bitcoin reaching $100,000 would imply only around 33% upside, and "$100,000 Bitcoin doesn't sound that unreasonable" as it would represent "just 10% of the gold market," plus the potential for a "more permissive regulatory framework" under a Trump victory and Republican Senate control.
Galaxy Research Head: Bitcoin Hit New Highs This Week Without Showing Any "Overheating" Signs
Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs multiple times, but without showing any "overheating" signs, several analysts point out that some fundamental factors suggest Bitcoin may rise further. "From a fundamental perspective, the market does not appear overheated," Galaxy research head Alex Thorn said in a market report stated. Crypto analytics firm Nansen analyst Aurelie Barthere also expressed a similar view. "Bitcoin breaking new highs on high trading volume is a clear signal of the sustained positive momentum post-election."
Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet's Stock Price Surged Over 1000% YTD, Becoming the Best Performing Japanese Stock
Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, CEO Simon Gerovich previously stated that the company's Bitcoin strategy has caused its stock price to rise about 1,017% so far this year, making it the best performing Japanese stock in 2024. The company launched a Bitcoin program in April and has become the second largest corporate holder of BTC in Asia, after Booyah. According to Yahoo Finance data, its stock price has surged 740% in six months, from $190 in April to $1,596 at Friday's close.
Standard Chartered: Bitcoin to Reach $125,000 by Year-End After Trump's Victory
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research, previously stated that after Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will reach $125,000 by the end of this year, and $200,000 by the end of 2025, echoing the estimate made by Bernstein analysts earlier this month.
It's clear that as countless TradFi asset management giants, listed companies, and Bitcoin reserve strategy executors get involved, their interests are now aligned with the crypto industry.
Industry Analysts: Risks Remain, Holding is Still the Best Choice
Although the market greed index has risen rapidly, in the context of excessive enthusiasm and FOMO, many crypto analysts and industry builders have also expressed some different views, as summarized below:
CZ: As Bitcoin Hits New Highs, Investors Should Manage Risks Appropriately
CZ previously posted that as Bitcoin hits new highs, investors also need to manage risks appropriately. There will be many valleys (and peaks) in the future, and one should ensure they can handle and respond to them, control their greed, and not put all their eggs in one basket.
CryptoQuant CEO: Advises Bitcoin Holders to Gradually Sell, Warns of Cross Margin Risks
Ki Young Ju, CEO of crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant, stated last Thursday that new investors often hold BTC during bear markets, and sell around two years after the market stabilizes. He believes this transition period is now, and BTC may rise another 30-40% from current levels, but unlikely to see the 368% surge from $16,000 again. He advises investors to consider gradually selling, rather than continuing "cross margin buying".
On November 10th, possibly stimulated by BTC's new highs, he posted again saying "BTC just entered the price discovery phase." Meanwhile, he warned today that BTC's year-end price may be slightly below $59,000, and cited the overheated futures market as a major reason for the potential year-end plunge.
Has BTC entered the price discovery phase?
Presto Research Analyst: $100,000 Will Be Bitcoin's Next "Interest Level"
Presto Research investment analyst Min Jung stated that traders are enthusiastic about Bitcoin's prospects, "in the short term, due to the symbolic nature of the digits and digit changes, 100k will become the next major interest level, the US may ultimately add BTC to its balance sheet - perhaps as part of a 'strategic BTC reserve' or similar asset, considering this, our target is around the $110,000 range."
It's clear that despite certain risks, some industry participants still maintain a cautious attitude towards the currently overheated market sentiment.
Retail Investor Trends: New Investors Rushing In, Mature Investors Still Increasing Holdings
Under the influence of various factors, individual retail investors are also "rushing in", and the "Trump effect" may continue to affect the participation of cryptocurrency industry investors.
Bitcoin Google Search Volume Surged After Trump Won the Election, Indicating New Investors Entering the Market
Market observers stated that the surge in Bitcoin Google search volume after Trump won the election indicates an increase in retail investors' interest in digital assets. Solv Protocol co-founder Ryan Chow said that Trump's victory was the "main catalyst to kick off the next bull market". Crypto macro analyst Noelle Acheson said, "In general, retail investors tend to be 'latecomers' because they are influenced by headlines related to prices and widespread social attention. Due to the absence of retail investors, market observers can infer that the crypto cycle is in an early stage, and we will know that the hype is approaching its peak when retail investors start to 'rush in'."
IntoTheBlock: Bitcoin Daily Large Transaction Volume Surged to $90 Billion After the US Election
According to IntoTheBlock, after the US election, the volume of large BTC transactions surged, reaching a peak of $90 billion on November 6, indicating a significant increase in whale activity.
Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": Currently Holding 73 BTC, Plans to Hold 100 BTC in a Year
Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad", stated that he previously purchased his first BTC at $6,000 and plans to continue purchasing at $76,000. He currently holds 73 BTC and plans to hold 100 BTC in a year.
Viewpoint: BTC Price May Reach $100,000 by January 2025 When Trump Takes Office
Fadi Aboualfa, the head of research at crypto custody company Copper.co, believes that by January 20, 2025, when Trump takes office, the price of BTC may reach $100,000, adding that this rise "is occurring against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, which is different from the current environment of a strong dollar". Given that BTC exchange-traded funds currently hold around 1.1 million BTC, the momentum in the coming months is likely to be positive.
Additionally, Jag Kooner, the head of derivatives at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, stated that although it is difficult to predict the price of BTC, the target of $100,000 in a few months "does not seem too far-fetched", and he added: "Given the bullish momentum, coupled with the fact that the economy has avoided a recession, we expect the downside for BTC to be limited now. The $100,000 target looks very reasonable."
In summary, individual retail investors remain optimistic about the future market, and the ongoing wealth creation effect or the hot market is expected to continue to attract new investors to join.
Conclusion: BTC Price Breaking $100,000 Will Be a New Starting Point, But Risk Management Is Needed
Considering the national, institutional, and individual levels, as BTC firmly holds the $80,000 level, its price breaking $100,000 has become a matter of sooner or later. However, during this process, the market may experience multiple minor adjustments, and after Trump officially takes office in January next year, BTC strategic reserves and a series of crypto-friendly regulatory measures are worth looking forward to.
Before that, perhaps as BTC analyst Tuur Demeester previously said, "BTC reaching $79,000, a new high, is just the beginning, it's time to maintain the right practices and stabilize. No need to take any hasty actions, HODLing will do the job for you."
