This bull market will bring greater capital growth momentum to the crypto circle. After Trump takes office on January 20 next year, assuming he fulfills his campaign promises, crypto companies will have more room for innovation and create higher returns, which is very worth looking forward to.
For Bitcoin, institutional investors are the biggest contributors to this price surge. As mentioned earlier, the crypto market has shown a "institutions buy, retail sell" phenomenon, with Coinbase and Korean exchange prices showing negative premiums, but Bitcoin ETFs have seen consecutive net inflows. Last week, institutional investors bought even more, and the net inflow was very surprising. According to Farside data, on the day of Trump's election victory on November 7, the net inflow of ETF funds reached $1.3 billion, exceeding the total inflow of funds over several weeks.
Seeing Bitcoin's crazy rise, retail investors' sentiment has also gone crazy, with representative exchange premiums reversing, indicating that retail investors have shifted from selling to buying. The increase in Google search heat and capital inflows shows that retail investors' interest has been rekindled and may attract a new wave of buyers into the crypto market.
After such a crazy surge, many people are also curious whether the crypto market can still rise higher, and whether Bitcoin's potential has just begun. Medium and long-term policies and the overall economy are favorable for Bitcoin's market value growth, and the short-term correction is just to pave the way for a better long-term rise. As the saying goes, an $80,000 pullback does not mean being pessimistic about the future trend.
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(You can all forge more iron recently, and I will give more welfare to the iron fans and those who interact more.)
The market's greed sentiment is too crazy and will continue for a while
After the "Trump victory" and the "Fed rate cut" two major positive factors drove the market to another high, I am more confident in Bitcoin's long-term trend. Assuming Bitcoin continues to maintain the current pace of capital inflows - whether it's institutions or retail investors actively pouring into the Bitcoin market, the internal capital flows in the crypto market are also spilling over to small and medium-sized competing coins and meme coins, and this is just the initial stage of an "across-the-board rise", which can go even further in the future.
According to the current market sentiment, we may be able to see Bitcoin break through the $85,000 range by next year or even the end of this year. Even though many people are calling for a $100,000 price, the short-term market trading atmosphere is inevitably too crazy, and there is almost no short position left in the market. This speed of price surge can only occur when the short positions are fully covered, and it will definitely face short-term corrections when the time is extended.
There's nothing wrong with reducing positions at this level, just keep some USDT on hand, and you won't panic no matter what the market does, buy when it dips, and chase when it rises. Any operation is done with ease.
Trump's victory
Assuming Trump can follow through on his campaign promises, providing the U.S. crypto industry with a more relaxed development space, then more capital will flow into the crypto market.
On the other hand, Trump has also vowed to bring Bitcoin back to "Made in America", and it is expected that there will be more demand for mining equipment. With the change in the industry structure, the market's valuation of stocks will also change significantly, which is why crypto exchanges and mining stocks have surged more than 30% in a single day after Trump's victory, and continued to rise for several trading days. Among them, Coinbase surged from $180 to $270 in one breath, an increase of more than 50%. If crypto exchanges can get rid of the existing regulatory constraints, there is a high probability that their business development will see explosive growth.
Fed rate cut
The other factor is the "Fed rate cut". The rate cut cycle will drive the rise of risk assets, which is common knowledge, so I won't go into more detail here. What we need to explore is how fast the Fed will cut rates further. Based on the latest statement, the committee members are no longer focused on inflation, but on how bad the U.S. job market is. From their unanimous vote to cut rates, it is clear that the U.S. job market is already much worse than before, with many of the job opportunities being temporary positions created by the government. Accelerated rate cuts are a foreseeable future.
Sell when you should, hold when you should
The probability of Bitcoin's price continuing to rise in the medium and long term is quite high. If investors are considering an add-on strategy, short-term corrections will be relatively good buying opportunities. The market structure has already changed, and regulatory concerns over crypto have gradually eased. As long as there is positive news, it will drive the price up. The current bull market is only in the middle stage, and there are higher target prices to look forward to in the future. Holding Bitcoin is the best investment option for 2024 and 2025.
In the long run, the bell of a new era has already rung. Perhaps the insights on macroeconomics, politics, military, and economics vary from person to person, but the capital operation model and future positioning of the pool have already been revealed. What needs to be reiterated is that the change in the path of capital flow has made the capital correlation attribute between BTC and Altcoins within the market increasingly weak. The so-called comprehensive altcoin season under the background of high penetration rate has only two paths left: either real money is poured in, and the whole market FOMO, or you must have something really amazing, like SUI.
The main line of this bull market is that not all coins will rise together, which is the point I've been instilling in everyone all year. Coin selection must be extremely cautious going forward.
For those who already have positions, just hold on to them. Don't switch positions randomly now, as it's easy to mess up your mentality if you get it wrong. Those with heavy positions who chased the highs should reduce positions in time. After this round of the market is over, take a good look at the coins you have. If they don't rise during this stage, this bull market may just be like this, and you should decisively let go of those that you can't hold on to.
