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Bitcoin has finally broken through $80,000, standing at $81,300 at the time of writing, with an overall increase of 30% in the past month. As shown in the figure below. Many people had previously expected that this bull market would at least allow Bitcoin to break through $80,000, but they did not expect the result to come so quickly.
These days, I've found that the discussion in the group has become very active again, with almost hundreds of discussion messages every day, and many partners have shared their own insights and expressed their personal views on the market, from which I have also gained a lot.
Let me also share an interesting historical story with you. I remember that when I decided to start a mutual aid group in July 2023, it wasn't until the end of that month that the first partner joined me, and by October of the same year, only 9 partners had joined the group in 4 months.
But it was from November 2023 that the number of people in the group began to increase rapidly, reaching more than 200 people in just 2 months. If you compare the price trend of Bitcoin during that period, you will find that it was also a period of market upswing. Then, from April 2024, the number of new members joining the group began to decrease again, and basically remained at a relatively stable number.
I remember that there were partners in the group who joked that they would use the group's activity as a market reference indicator, which is actually a pretty interesting thing. In a sense, it seems that it can indeed serve as a direct perceptual auxiliary reference for the emotional aspect.
At this stage, the market has become very optimistic, and many people are full of expectations for the upcoming market trend, and believe that the Altcoin season has already started. But there are also people who hold the opposite view, believing that people are now facing another bull market trap. That is to say, the current market seems to continue to be divided into two views:
Some believe that Trump's inauguration will continue to stimulate the rapid rise of the crypto market
Some believe that people are (or are about to) fall into a new round of bull market trap
So-called public has public reason, and private has private reason, it seems that each view can also come up with its own basis, so which way will the market tend to go in the future? In this issue, let's continue to try to sort out and discuss:
1. Some Altcoins start to go crazy
In the past two weeks, the BTC.D (BTC Dominance) indicator has only dropped by about 1%, from 60% to 50%, but some Altcoins have been unable to restrain themselves and have experienced rapid increases, such as SUI, DRIFT and other tokens whose prices have directly created new records. As shown in the figure below.
On the surface, it seems that Trump's victory in the US election has very well stimulated the market's optimistic sentiment, prompting some major players (institutions/market makers, etc.) to directly push up the prices of some Altcoins while Bitcoin continues to break new historical highs. Perhaps, with the further interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve, and with the macro conditions remaining favorable, the growth may continue for a period of time as a large amount of new liquidity flows into the market.
2. Changes in BTC ETF capital inflows
So far, this bull market has basically been a ETF-driven bull market. ETFs have attracted a lot of new capital inflows since they were officially approved and launched this year, which has also driven Bitcoin prices to new highs. But starting around March this year, the total capital of ETFs has started to see net outflows, and the market sentiment has also started to decline as a result. However, recently, BTC ETFs have been seeing a large amount of capital inflows. As shown in the figure below.
For example, in the past trading week, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $1.63 billion, and on November 7th, the single-day net inflow even set a new high. Among them, the Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow is the BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.25 billion. The second is the Fidelity ETF FBTC, with a weekly net inflow of $295 million.
ETF inflows, as an important sentiment indicator, the logic behind it is quite clear. Moreover, after Trump's inauguration, the political forces in the US are expected to become increasingly supportive of cryptocurrencies, which may further increase the likelihood of traditional financial institutions/high-net-worth individuals allocating capital to crypto assets, and BTC ETFs are currently the most convenient channel tool for traditional capital to invest in cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, even for ordinary US stock investors, BTC ETFs may become a very attractive asset type under Trump's endorsement.
3. Increased market liquidation intensity
At the time of writing, the total liquidation volume across the network in the past 24 hours has reached $683 million, with 214,459 people being liquidated, of which long positions were liquidated for over $320 million and short positions were liquidated for over $360 million, a true double-kill. As shown in the figure below.
Many traders may mainly rely on technical analysis for their operations, but under the short-term violent fluctuations of the market, large-scale liquidations may occur. And if the big bull market wants to start or continue, it needs to further complete or accompany high-intensity liquidation and reshuffling, and then there may be the possibility of a more powerful violent pull-up.
We expect that the market may see larger-scale liquidations in the next few days, so please pay attention to the short-term risks, especially for those partners who have added leverage.
4. Geopolitical instability may continue
In the past few days, it seems that people have seen mostly positive news, and all kinds of institutional analysts have come out to make bold statements, such as:
Economist and trader Alex Krüger said: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000.
Well-known analyst Markus Thielen said: Bitcoin's price may break through $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of around $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick said: BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Even the famous crypto KOL PlanB said: BTC may reach $1 million by the end of 2025 (As a top KOL in the last bull market, I personally think PlanB's prediction is a bit exaggerated, Bitcoin may reach $1 million in the future, but it won't happen next year).
And so on...
But we still have one problem that cannot be ignored, that is, there are still some unstable factors in the current geopolitical situation. The various positive news that the big players are actively pushing to you now, but as the price rises rapidly, the big players/major players may continue to use geopolitical and other events to create some negative news and push it to the public, and conduct new explorations on the market.
If the major players want to make a final violent pull-up, they will certainly continue to carry out various necessary explorations in order to assess and measure whether people are ready to rush into the market top as the bag holder. And if the exploration is not successful, and the liquidity still cannot meet the expectations of the major players/big players, the market will inevitably enter a new round of correction.
In summary, we have just reviewed and discussed some of the recent phenomena observed. The bear market has no bottom, and the bull market has no top. Any so-called market predictions (including between the lines) can only be considered as guesses. For ordinary investors, our advice is to always approach the market with reverence, neither completely believing that the bull market has just begun, nor completely believing that the bull market is about to end. The key is to comprehensively consider and decide based on your own risk preferences and position management, such as, for those who have a Bitcoin cost basis below $20,000 in this cycle, we have actually come a long way. We have mentioned in our previous articles that if your average Bitcoin holding cost is below $40,000 during this bull market, and you are worried and afraid of a possible new correction after Bitcoin breaks through $80,000, you can consider gradually reducing your position. The specific proportion of position reduction can be allocated according to your own risk preference and market expectation, for example, reduce 10% of the position at $80,000, and then reduce another 10-20% at $85,000, and so on. However, in the actual operation process, you cannot focus only on the price, but also need to combine K-line indicators, on-chain data indicators, macroeconomic indicators, and other dimensions (or your personal preferred dimensions, such as the group activity mentioned at the beginning of the article) to assist in the consideration. As for Altcoins, if you are not afraid of the possible correction, you can boldly buy (but also control the position, preferably in batches, and try not to 'All In') or wait for the correction to buy the projects you were very optimistic about before, because theoretically and data-wise, Altcoins have not yet reached the stage of large-scale outbreak. However, if your mentality is unstable, or you are easily afraid of losing, then any operation at this time is a 50-50 probability game for you. Looking at the overall trend, the market is more likely to continue to rise (while also paying attention to the risk of correction in the next few days), but this bullish trend is unlikely to last too long. Whether you can complete your own profit target before the end of this bull market depends on your operation in the next six months. You can focus on the market opportunities before January next year (when Trump officially takes office as president), and Bitcoin may have the opportunity to challenge the $100,000 level. As for the much-anticipated new round of Altcoin season, I cannot accurately judge or predict the specific timing, but I can blindly guess that it may occur in the first or second quarter of next year (when geopolitical issues may further ease, coupled with the Fed's continued rate cut expectations), but it is unlikely to be as comprehensive as the previous bull market. In the late stage of the bull market, the market will be filled with various tempting opportunities and FOMO emotions, but for us as retail investors, it often also means greater challenges. Wish you all good luck.
