In the online exchange over the weekend, many readers asked about the potential of ORDI.
I judge the potential of ORDI from two dimensions: short-term and long-term.
If we look at the short-term, that is, this cycle (from now to next year), I believe ORDI still has room for upside.
As long as Bitcoin continues to rise and maintains this momentum until next year, the new assets (including the top-ranked Non-Fungible Tokens, etc.) that have emerged in its ecosystem this cycle will most likely experience asset rotation. In that case, ORDI will still perform well, but how high it can rise is unpredictable.
I have also mentioned in previous articles that ORDI can be seen as Bitcoin's leverage.
Looking at the current data (https://www.coingecko.com/), over the past 7 days, the increase in Bitcoin was around 15%, while the increase in ORDI was 22%, slightly higher than Bitcoin, but the leverage effect is not obvious. I believe that in the future, when sector rotation triggers FOMO sentiment, the leverage effect will be more apparent.
However, from a long-term perspective, the potential of ORDI depends heavily on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
If Bitcoin's growth is limited to the "digital gold" concept, ORDI's upside potential will also be limited. If Bitcoin can develop an application ecosystem and become an application platform, its upside potential will be greatly expanded, and ORDI's potential will also be greatly expanded.
To illustrate this relationship between Bitcoin and ORDI, I used the example of the development of the art market in our country during the online exchange.
From the 1950s to the 1990s, our country's economy was in a long-term stagnant state, and the art market (including ceramics, calligraphy and paintings, etc.) was also in a price trough, with a significantly lower position compared to the art markets of developed countries.
After the 1990s, with the take-off of our country's economy, the prices of our country's art also began to soar, and the growth rate of many sectors was no less than that of the real estate industry, gradually catching up with the prices of internationally renowned art.
The fundamental reason was the development of the economy. After economic prosperity, art and collectibles naturally absorb some of the excess capital, benefiting from it.
Similarly, in the Bitcoin ecosystem, assets like ORDI are equivalent to the historical valuable art or collectibles in this ecosystem.
Therefore, the long-term potential of ORDI depends on the long-term potential of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Looking at the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem during this period, although I still have some hope for the application development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, my concerns have been increasing day by day. Because the competition in the ecosystem is cruel, and the time window for the development of Bitcoin's application ecosystem will not be very long. If the precious time window is missed, even if the infrastructure of the Bitcoin ecosystem is already in place, the developers may not focus their main efforts on the Bitcoin platform.
Therefore, in the next year or so, if the Bitcoin ecosystem still fails to develop its own innovative applications, the application development of the Bitcoin ecosystem may be in danger.
Based on this judgment, I will still hold ORDI and other assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem. But at some point next year, when Bitcoin's price reaches a certain height, regardless of whether I will consider selling my Bitcoin at that time, I will most likely sell my ORDI and other Bitcoin ecosystem assets, and ultimately only keep Bitcoin and a few Non-Fungible Tokens that I particularly like in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
