SignalPlus Macro Analysis Special Edition: 80K

Although Trump was elected and will not take office for another 2 months, the impact of his victory is already widely reflected in geopolitics and the capital market. Cryptocurrencies have once again become a focus, and while vote counting is still ongoing in parts of the US, the BTC price has surpassed $80,000, and Blackrock's BTC ETF (IBIT) set a single-day inflow record of $1.1 billion last Thursday, and even the ETH ETF saw its third-highest single-day inflow in history.

IBIT's year-to-date inflows rank third among all US-listed ETFs, with its assets under management exceeding $33 billion, surpassing iShares' own gold ETF. In this rally, centralized exchanges (CEXs) have liquidated over $800 million in short futures positions in the past week, one of the largest short liquidations of the year, and with the return of leveraged capital, the funding rates of perpetual contracts have soared to around 30%.

In addition, although on-chain activity is sluggish, the influx of traditional finance has become a stable supporting factor, and the market capitalization of stablecoins has continued to steadily rebound this year, recovering to near the historical high of 2022, and further inflows of stablecoins should provide more margin capital, and as prices continue to rebound, leverage is expected to remain high.

From a political perspective, given that the incoming administration is more inclined to support cryptocurrency legislation, the industry is increasingly optimistic about the emergence of a more crypto-friendly regulatory framework in the future.

Returning to the macro market, the US stock market has ignored the disappointment of China's stimulus policies and continued to hit new highs, while the fixed income market has remained stable due to the dovish stance of the FOMC meeting last Thursday. In addition, as the market is expected to maintain a risk-on mode before the end of the year, the cross-asset volatility of macro assets has declined significantly, on the other hand, with BTC breaking through $80,000, the volatility of BTC and ETH has rebounded slightly, and the $100,000 call options have once again come into market focus.

This week will see the release of CPI data, and apart from that, there are not many other major macroeconomic data releases this month. Interestingly, market pricing reflects that the release of Nvidia's earnings report is a more important risk event than CPI or nonfarm payroll reports, indicating that the market is relatively confident in the Fed's stance and that the market environment does not have any obvious negative catalysts. So, enjoy the party while it lasts, but still maintain prudent risk management. Good luck to you all!