Author: Yano, BlockWorks Co-Founder
Compiled by: TechFlow
The bull market is divided into four stages.
Buckle up, we've just entered the most exciting stage.
Welcome to the third stage~
Reminder, the first stage is rebirth
This stage occurs from January 2023 to January 2024.
In the rebirth stage, the fatigue of the bear market is the main feature.
Indifference makes all stories lose their appeal.
Your friends and the media are still focused on the collapse of the bear market.
Layoffs are still ongoing.
However, prices are quietly rising.
Bitcoin has tripled in price.
But you hardly notice it, because you are still in a loss position on many investments.
Only veteran cryptocurrency investors who have experienced more than two cycles realize that the bull market has already begun.
Most people still don't believe this is the start of the bull market.
The second stage is excitement
This stage began in February 2024 and ended last week.
Some coins are approaching their all-time highs. The market narrative returns, but only a few each quarter.
Everyone in the cryptocurrency field knows we are now in a bull market.
But strangely, your friends still haven't messaged you.
You are in a strange state of both excitement and anxiety.
Layoffs are basically over, but hiring has not yet resumed.
The field seems closed. No one is leaving, and no new people are joining.
Overall, life is good. Your cryptocurrency friends are all making profits.
This is the calm before the storm.
The third stage is euphoria
We are now in this stage.
The euphoria stage officially began on November 5th, the presidential election.
This is a delightful moment.
Everyone is making money, but speculators have not yet flooded in.
Seize the opportunity and enjoy this moment, because it will be very short-lived.
The assets you hold are about to surpass their historical highs (if they haven't already).
While in the past there were only a few new market narratives each quarter, now there are new ones every week.
Eventually, there will be new stories almost every day.
No one is tired of these stories - every idea is seen as a "good" one.
Everyone with a following is seen as a genius and has their own insights on the new market narratives.
Someone will make money on this week's hot coins, and I can guarantee they will brag about it.
This may be frustrating.
(But remember, everyone has their own interests, and no one will share their failures)
New market narratives bring new coins.
Coins are rising every day. You won't own most of them.
That week you might make 8%, but you'll be frustrated for missing [the hot new coin].
The combination of new coins and new stories brings "fear of missing out" (FOMO).
If you're not careful, FOMO can get you into trouble.
Some suggestions:
Understand your investment strategy and its pros and cons.
Trade daily? Know that this will impact your work and mental health.
Focus on building? Know that you may miss out on some major trades.
Everything has pros and cons - understand them.
Don't try to do everything, or you won't succeed.
Back to the third stage.
The private market is about to become exceptionally hot.
It all started with asset allocators. They woke up on November 6th to find themselves severely underinvested in cryptocurrencies.
They started reaching out to venture capital firms and hedge funds for investment allocations.
These firms will announce the launch of large new funds faster than you might expect.
Late-stage venture capital has been dormant for over two years. Now it will make a strong comeback.
Large funds and an open IPO market mean B-D round companies can raise funds again.
Large fundraises are the norm once more.
A-round funding deals are completed quickly.
This attracts new world-class founders to join.
Hiring is becoming extremely competitive.
Protocols are offering enticing Token rewards to top talent.
If you're a founder, you have 3-6 months (possibly less) to hire the best talent at reasonable salaries.
After that, you'll have to scramble to catch up.
We're mainstream again.
Forbes, Bloomberg, CNBC... they're all enthusiastic about cryptocurrencies.
Your friends are messaging you about Cardano. Your financial advisor is recommending a 5% Bitcoin allocation.
Traditional finance is rushing to "tokenize everything"
Then, at some point in mid-2025, strange things start to happen.
Entering the fourth stage: Disconnection
Fortune 500 companies announce large-scale Bitcoin purchases.
Athletes and artists start getting involved - cryptocurrencies permeate culture.
Venture capital firms no longer do due diligence.
Speculators raise millions and become the center of attention.
Random coins 10x in a week.
In the fourth stage, everyone starts to believe the market will rise forever.
Delusion affects decision-making.
This stage can also be described as madness.
Everything becomes unreasonable.
There's a new market narrative every week.
Now everything becomes a story.
Your wealth exceeds your wildest dreams.
Your high school friend issued a Token, and he's now worth millions.
A veteran investor bought a sports team.
Bieber launched a decentralized social platform.
Lebron launched a MEME coin.
Major companies are investing billions in marketing, so be prepared.
The next 12 months will be a crazy period. For those who focus and commit, 2025 could be a life-changing year.
But if you're not careful, the arrogance and laziness of the fourth stage could cost you dearly.
Finally, don't forget to enjoy life from time to time.
Now, let's start building.
